There are only 10 weeks left of the US war in Afghanistan – at least on paper.
Why it matters: Donald Trump promised a complete withdrawal of troops by May 1 as part of a deal struck with the Taliban a year ago. President Biden must now decide if he can take the risk of honoring it.
The big picture: Under the deal, the Taliban pledged to reduce violence, enter into peace talks with the Afghan government (which was not a party to the Trump-Taliban deal) and ensure that Afghanistan does not become a haven again for terror groups such as al-Qaeda.
- The Taliban have stopped attacking US and NATO forces but continue to attack Afghan forces. Intra-Afghan peace talks have stalled and the Taliban have refused to cut ties with Al-Qaeda.
- Meanwhile, Trump reduced the number of US troops from about 13,000 to 2,500 before leaving office. NATO allies have an additional 8,000 troops in the country.
- Flashback: The number of troops rose to 100,000 under Barack Obama. The most prominent internal opponent of Obama’s wave was Biden, who has long argued for a smaller counter-terrorism operation.
The state of affairs: The Pentagon has accused the Taliban of breaching its commitments, but says the deal remains in effect. Biden also held on to the man negotiating it, Zalmay Khalilzad.
- NATO has not yet decided whether its troops will stay after May, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said last week. The alliance’s decision will be closely related to Biden’s.
Biden has three broad choices.
1. Leave on time.
- Completely abandoned by May could lead to the “collapse of the Afghan state” and “renewed civil war,” said a recent report by the Afghan Study Group, a congressional committee headed by former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Joe Dunford.
- The commission also warned that within “18 months to three years” Afghanistan could once again become a base for terror groups to plot against the US.
- If Biden finally ends the US war in Afghanistan, he could be forced to watch cities fall into Taliban hands and eradicate hard-won freedoms for Afghan women.
- The argument for complete withdrawal is that there will never be a happy end to this war, and 20 years is long enough.
2. Withdraw from the deal and return to a “conditions-based” approach.
- The Taliban would likely resume attacks on US and NATO forces and withdraw completely from the intra-Afghan peace process.
- That would leave the US once again faced with an indefinite commitment to Afghanistan and the prospect of sending additional troops if conditions worsen.
- The argument for this approach is that the Taliban have no intention of delaying their end of the deal, and America has put too much into the fray to undo its achievements.
3. Search for an extension to the deadline and put a new emphasis on the peace process.
- That would save Biden time and give the intra-Afghan talks some chance of success.
- But it would need the Taliban to agree to an extension just as their main goal – the removal of foreign troops from Afghanistan – comes into play.