In a sobering milestone, the availability of ICU beds in Bay Area hospitals fell below 15% for the first time on Wednesday, triggering state regulations that will place every county in the region under a home obligation.
According to the State Department of Health Services, the region had 12.9% of ICU beds open on Wednesday.
For much of the Bay Area, there will be no change. Six of the Bay Area’s nine counties had already passed the stricter rules last week, when Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, Marin and Sonoma put them into effect as a preventative measure. By doing this, health officials had hoped to slow down the steadily increasing number of COVID-19 cases in the area and prevent hospitals from reaching capacity.
A seventh state-encompassing county in the Bay Area region, Monterey, also took that step on Sunday.
But four other contiguous counties – San Mateo, Santa Cruz, Napa and Solano – failed to implement the deeper restrictions early on. They will see the stay-at-home order take effect Thursday at 11:59 PM.
“Our hospitals and our healthcare delivery system are at the breaking point,” said Dr. Gail Newel, Santa Cruz County health officer, adding “Our actions now will help us return to our normal lives sooner rather than later.”
Stay-at-home rules require all restaurants to close out dining, although they may still be open for delivery and takeout. Stores and shopping centers are limited to no more than 20% of the customer’s capacity, requiring access metering. Supermarkets are limited to 35% capacity. Bars, nail salons, hairdressers, hair salons and tattoo parlors must close. Indoor gyms, as well as zoos, museums, aquariums and cinemas, should also close.
Churches can only have outside services. And hotels can only rent out rooms to essential employees such as doctors or nurses.
The restrictions must remain in effect for a minimum of three weeks, until January 8. They are then canceled when the IC bed capacity of a region equals or exceeds 15% again.
Schools that are already open to personal learning may remain open. This also applies to non-emergency medical care and dental practices. Parks, playgrounds, beaches and nature reserves will remain open. But campsites are closed.
“The news is not good at the moment,” said Dr. Marty Fenstersheib, a Santa Clara County health officer. “There have been more cases. People are dying. We are seeing more cases now than we ever saw when this pandemic started in Santa Clara County. We now do more than 1,000 cases per day on average. In July, when we thought things were going pretty bad, we saw about 300 cases a day, so that’s tripled. “
Fenstersheib said the release of the Pfizer vaccine this week “will hopefully mark the end of this pandemic.” But he noted that it will be months for a majority of Bay Area residents to get it.
Until then, he urged people to be vigilant, wear masks, socialize, and not travel to visit others during the holidays. He noted that his own dad is 94 and they won’t be together this year.
“I can’t visit him during the holidays, and I’m very sad about that,” said Fenstersheib. ‘But he knows and I know this is how we will protect each other. Let’s be vigilant and hopefully we’ll all be together next Christmas. “
Two weeks ago, when Governor Gavin Newom first announced the new stay-at-home rules, he quoted estimates from medical experts that the Bay Area would drop below the 15% IC bed threshold in mid or late December.
That was based on the number of cases that soared after Thanksgiving, when families across the state ignored or downplayed health warnings and gathered in indoor environments, spreading the virus.
Doctors are concerned that similar gatherings around Christmas and other upcoming holidays, including travel, could increase cases even more. On Monday and Tuesday, days after the FDA approved a vaccine from Pfizer, primary care doctors, nurses, and other workers across California received their first shots providing protection. The FDA is expected to approve another vaccine on Friday, made by Moderna.
Newsom said it expects California to receive 2.1 million doses by the end of this month.
“This is a time of hope, and it is also a time to remain vigilant as we face the most intense wave ever,” Newsom said Tuesday. “Although we have prepared ourselves for this wave with beds and equipment, the staff shortage is real and it is affecting our medical system. There is light at the end of the tunnel and I urge all Californians to do our part to help us get through this – wear a mask, reduce blending, stay home, stop spreading, and save lives. Together we will get through this. “
The Bay Area region – where COVID is spreading at a slower rate than Southern California and the Central Valley – is the fourth of five California regions to now go into closure warrants. In recent weeks, Southern California, the San Joaquin Valley and the Greater Sacramento regions had already dipped below the 15% threshold.
In total, 47 of California’s 58 counties were under house arrest on Wednesday. They are home to 39 million of California’s 40 million residents.
Only the Northern California region, which includes mostly rural counties, still remains above the 15% availability of ICU beds. There, the ICU capacity was 28.1%. In the Greater Sacramento region, this was 14.1% on Wednesday. In San Joaquin Valley it was 0% – no ICU beds were available. And in Southern California it was 0.5%.