BANGKOK (AP) – When COVID-19 was recently diagnosed by Thailand’s transport minister, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha got a headache.
Prayuth was not particularly praised last year for his leadership against the coronavirus, but for much of 2020 Thailand fought the disease to a halt, with low infection and death rates envied by more developed countries.
Now, an outbreak in entertainment venues in the capital Bangkok has sparked new infections, suggesting the country may have lulled into a false sense of security before the mass vaccinations begin.
On Thursday, 1,543 new cases were confirmed, bringing the total to 37,453, with 97 dead. While that is much better than most other countries, Thailand’s cases in the first three months of this year were three times as large as the entire country last year, and the daily number is rising rapidly.
The new outbreak has spread to mostly young, affluent and mobile Thais, with some of the newly infected the more contagious variant first identified in the UK.
The government says Transport Minister Saksayam Chidchob contracted the virus from an assistant who visited some of the contagious nightspots, including a club described by Thai media as a glorified comic strip joint that blatantly ignored social precautions. This has contributed to widespread skepticism about how the government has handled the latest crisis.
Thailand has only recently begun to relax the strict border controls that have kept out most travelers over the past year, especially key tourists whose spending supports millions of jobs. The restrictions include mandatory tests and 14 days of quarantines for almost all arrivals.
Officials seemed reluctant to impose sweeping restrictions such as curfews, bans on serving alcohol and closing bars, parks and shopping malls that were the rule this time last year, when Songkran’s Thai New Year holidays were canceled.
This week the holiday continued and as many as a million Thais went out to visit family or crowds on the beach, even as some hospitals stopped COVID-19 tests due to crowds of thousands of people who feared they had been exposed or needed proof. they were virus free. Some hospitals claimed to have run out of testing supplies, but the government said the real reason was an unintended consequence of a well-intentioned regulation – they are required to hospitalize infected patients right away, but felt they didn’t have enough beds to accommodate them.
Officials turned to allow referrals, and thousands of beds have been filled in field hospitals set up to house people with confirmed infections, according to government protocol to isolate all known patients. Online photos show exhausted medical personnel in protective gear, slumped asleep on their desks and chairs.
A worst-case scenario from the Department of Disease Control’s epidemiology division calculated that without security measures, the country could see up to 28,678 daily cases.
“The situation is still worrying; more measures are to be taken, ”warned Dr. Grandpa Karnkavinpong, the department’s director general, Tuesday.
General Natthapon Nakpanich, operational head of the Center for COVID-19 Situation Administration, commented on Wednesday, saying the government is considering introducing lockdowns in several areas after the holidays. They include Bangkok and the surrounding provinces, Prachuab Khiri Khan to the south, where the resort town of Hua Hin is, the northern city of Chiang Mai, and parts of the east coast, where another popular holiday destination, Pattaya, is located.
On Tuesday, the government raised eyebrows by posting photos of soldiers spraying forest areas along the border, even though experts say the biggest virus risk is in the air.
The latest crisis has clearly made an Achilles heel in Thailand’s strategy, a lack of sufficient doses this year to inoculate a target 70% of the population deemed necessary to achieve herd immunity.
Less than 1% of the 69 million Thais have been vaccinated so far, a smaller percentage than in many of its Southeast Asian neighbors.
Thailand’s early success in containing the virus was remarkable given the millions of international travelers, especially from China, it usually hosts every year. The first case outside of China was a Chinese traveler diagnosed with a fever at Bangkok airport.
It is unclear why Thailand and several other Southeast Asian countries managed to contain the pandemic last year. Thailand’s extensive and experienced public health system played a big role, and Prayuth’s government generally relied on the advice of medical experts.
But the country has paid a heavy price for its aggressive outbreak containment efforts: the economy contracted 6.1% in 2020 and the resurgence of cases makes a recovery in tourism unlikely in the short term. Household indebtedness rose by 42% last year as income fell or stalled to 87% of the country’s GDP.
And Thailand’s lucky hit faded late last year, when a virus cluster was found among migrant workers working in factories and fish markets and living in crowded dormitories. Tight restrictions and a large-scale testing campaign near the outbreak’s epicenter seemed to contain it after several weeks.
“We don’t want to lock up the whole country because we know what the problems are, so can you all lock yourself up?” Prayuth said at the time. “This is up to everyone, if you don’t want to get infected, stay home for 14-15 days.”
That flare-up drew attention to the government’s vaccination plans just as the US and European countries began to double their vaccinations.
In early January, Prayuth said Thailand was trying to get 63 million doses, which at two doses per person would cover less than half of the population. Local production of the AstraZeneca vaccine is expected to start in June.
Complaints emerged that well-connected companies could unfairly take advantage of government contracts to manufacture and supply vaccines, allegations denied by the government and the companies involved. Prayuth’s political opponents piled up and complained of mismanagement, lack of transparency and lack of diversification beyond the AstraZeneca and Chinese Sinovac vaccines.
Registration for vaccines for the general public will begin in early May and vaccinations will begin later in the month. So far, the vaccinations have mainly gone to medical personnel, to areas considered to be particularly risky, and to communities that may open early as so-called bubbles, where foreign tourists who have been vaccinated are allowed to stay without going into quarantine.
On Wednesday 1,681 people received their first shot and 388 their second shot. Only 73,949 people have been fully vaccinated so far.