Signs with the American flag and the Chinese flag can be seen outside a store selling foreign goods in Qingdao, Shandong province, China on September 19, 2018.
AFP | Getty Images
SINGAPORE – According to an annual survey by Singaporean think tank ISEAS Yusof-Ishak Institute, Southeast Asia’s support for the US appeared to be on the rise after Joe Biden won the presidential election.
The survey on the state of Southeast Asia released last week found that 61.5% of respondents would prefer to join the US over China if the region is forced to take sides. That is an increase from 53.6% that a year ago chose the US over China in the same survey.
“The region’s support for Washington may have increased as a result of the prospects of the new Biden administration,” the report said of the survey results.
Responses to the latest poll were collected from November 18 last year to January 10 this year – after Biden was expected to beat Donald Trump in the election, but before he was inaugurated as president.
The survey involved more than 1,000 respondents from all 10 member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN. Respondents include government officials, business people, as well as analysts from academia, think tanks and research institutions.
When comparing data at country level, a majority of respondents from seven Southeast Asian countries in the latest survey chose the US over China. That’s an increase from three in the previous edition, with Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand switching sides.
Despite this, most of those surveyed chose China – over the US, ASEAN and others – as the most influential power in Southeast Asia.
About 76.3% of respondents chose China as the most influential economic power, while 49.1% chose China as the most influential political and strategic power.
Significance of Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia has been in the midst of competition between the US and China in recent years.
The region is home to more than 650 million people and some of the world’s fastest growing economies. Its proximity to the South China Sea – a vital commercial shipping route through which trillions of dollars of world trade passes – adds to its strategic importance.
The US has been an important presence in the region for many years through both security and economic commitments. But during Trump’s tenure, the US withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership – a mega trade pact encompassing several Southeast Asian countries – and top US officials were notably absent from a few key regional summits.
That apparent lack of interest from the US in recent years has coincided with China’s more aggressive pressure on the region through programs including investment in infrastructure under the Belt and Road Initiative.
But the latest ISEAS survey found that a majority of respondents – about 68.6% – were optimistic that the US under Biden would increase their engagement with Southeast Asia. That compared to a year ago, when 77% thought US involvement would decline, the survey showed.
The region’s confidence in the US has also risen from 30.3% a year ago to 48.3% in the latest survey.
“Only time will tell whether the region’s renewed confidence in the US is misplaced or not,” the report said.
Early signs have shown that the Biden government would focus more on the region in the coming years.
The president has expanded his foreign policy team to include experts on Asia, while US Secretary of State Antony Blinken – in an appeal with his Philippine counterpart – pledged to stand “behind” Southeast Asian countries against Chinese pressure. in the South China Sea.