The sad thing about the thousands of Americans who will die from the coronavirus pandemic in the coming weeks is that they don’t have to happen, according to a health expert.
“Any death we’re talking about this afternoon is preventable,” said Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of tropical medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, Thursday at CNN. ‘None of this has to happen.
“We have the ability to stop these deaths, get vaccines, keep masks on, social distance. We just have to get everyone to stay there for a few more weeks.”
More than 328,000 people in the United States have died from Covid-19 since Thursday afternoon, according to Johns Hopkins University.
The seven-day average of deaths is increasing in 22 states compared to the previous seven-day average.
Experts fear that holiday gatherings will trigger another wave of cases, followed by another wave of hospitalizations, followed by another wave of deaths.
“We can still save lives,” said Hotez. “No one has to lose their life for the next several weeks and months. However, it is a difficult message to get across.”
The death toll is expected to reach 567,000 in April
More than 1 million people have received their first injection of a Covid-19 vaccine, but an influential coronavirus model predicts the death toll in the US will rise more than half a million to 567,000 by April 1.
The latest projection from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation notes that the number could explode further to 731,000 by April 1 if states relax mandates aimed at controlling the novel coronavirus.
But more than 33,000 lives could be saved by the planned vaccine rollout, the IHME said, and 45,000 could be saved if the rollout went faster.
Across the country, the use of masks has increased to 74%, the IHME said. If it expanded to 95%, there could be 49,000 fewer deaths by April 1.
The latest IHME model comes as the US has pinned hopes for the rollout of its recently approved Covid-19 vaccines. According to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Operation Warp Speed distributed about 9.5 million doses and delivered at least 1 million doses early Wednesday.
As the number of Covid-19 cases continues to increase across the country, this achievement comes at a critical time and will help protect those on the front lines – our healthcare providers treating COVID-19 patients – as well as our most vulnerable: elderly individuals who live in nursing and assisted living facilities, ”said CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield.
The vaccinations can’t come too soon for California, which became the first state to hit 2 million cases of coronavirus late Wednesday – more than all but a handful of countries – less than six weeks after the state hit 1 million cases on Nov. 12. Considering the state’s 39.5 million residents, about 1 in 20 people in California have tested positive for the virus.
The state’s 7-day positivity rate is now at 12.6%, a slight drop from previous weeks. However, 55 of California’s 58 counties remain in the most restrictive purple layer of the state’s Covid-19 reopening system, resulting in the closure of many non-essential indoor operations.
Gavin Newsom has attributed the recent rise in the number of cases to people who have relaxed their physical efforts to distance themselves and get together with people outside their household, especially during the holidays.
In total, 23,558 Californians have died of complications from the disease since the start of the pandemic.
‘We have an end in sight’
In total, the US reported 228,131 new cases of the coronavirus and 3,359 new deaths on Wednesday, the third most deaths in one day. That’s a devastating “normal” for the US, which has seen an average of about 215,000 new cases and more than 2,700 new deaths per day in the past week.
Dr. Andrew Pastewski, the medical director of the intensive care unit at Jackson South Medical Center in Miami, attributed the increase in the number of cases at his hospital to Thanksgiving.
“And with the holidays ahead, we’re very scared of what we’re going to see,” he told CNN’s Erica Hill.
But with the vaccine, “we have an end in sight,” Pastewski said.
The government has said it plans to distribute 20 million first doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines in the coming weeks, a little later than originally planned.
“It has been a big week of vaccine delivery,” General Gustave Perna, chief operating officer of Operation Warp Speed, told reporters Wednesday. “More than 7,800 deliveries by the end of tomorrow as we deliver the 7.9 million doses of vaccine allocated for this week across the country – a truly amazing achievement.”
Perna said about 15.5 million doses of vaccine have been assigned and another 4.5 to 5 million next week.
“We will complete those deliveries in the first week of January,” he said.
In addition, health professionals have found that the Pfizer vaccine, a frozen solution diluted with saline before giving to humans, can yield more than the five doses initially thought.
As such, Perna said the additional kits shipped with the vaccine will be customized with additional supplies to allow for a possible sixth dose.
“We have adapted our contract and construction of the kits to provide … even more possibilities as we go further,” Perna said Wednesday.
He noted that there was already a little “extra capacity” built into the kits, and that currently most vaccine administration takes place in hospitals “where they have access to syringes and needles accordingly.”
“So feel very comfortable with the availability of syringes and needles and our ability to assemble these kits and continue to distribute the kits simultaneously with the vaccine,” he said.