There are growing signs that parts of the country may be close to meeting the demand for the coronavirus vaccine – well before the US achieves herd immunity.
Why it matters: For the past several months, the US’s primary focus has been to get photos of anyone who wants them as quickly as possible. Soon, that focus will shift abruptly to convincing guards to get vaccinated.
Situation: Red states in the South administer the lowest portion of the vaccine doses they receive from the federal government – a sign of low demand, sluggish public health systems, or both.
- The most reluctant Americans are white Republicans, polls show.
In numbers: States administered an average of 76% of the doses they received from the federal government. New Hampshire administered the largest share of all states, at 89.8%, while Alabama administered the smallest – only 61.4% of its doses.
Driving the news: An analysis released yesterday by Surgo Ventures concluded that “the shift in supply and demand towards the vaccine will occur sooner than expected – as early as late April – and before the nation is reaching the 70-90% threshold for herd immunity. “
- A survey found that 59% of American adults say they have already been vaccinated or are planning to get vaccinated as soon as the injection is available to them. At the current vaccination rate in the US, all those vaccine-avid adults could be vaccinated by the end of April.
- Vaccination coverage will then slow, and Surgo’s predictions show that only about 52% of Americans will have been vaccinated by July. When combined with people who are already infected, the immunity rate can generally be around 65% by then – still not high enough for herd immunity.
What they say: “This analysis shows that despite the general enthusiasm for vaccines that we are now seeing in the United States, things will become very difficult very quickly,” said Sema Sgaier, CEO of Surgo.
- “Without any significant investments in removing people’s obstacles and Making vaccines available to people under 18 will be a real challenge to achieve immunity to the herd. “
A separate survey of rural Americans released by the KFF this morning found that while they have been vaccinated earlier than urban and suburban Americans, there are fewer rural residents eager to take their photos.
- 39% have already received at least one dose of the vaccine, 16% say they will get it as soon as possible, and 15% say they want to “wait and see”.
- Another 9% said they will only be vaccinated when needed, and 21% said they certainly will not. In suburban areas, a combined 21% said they were vaccine resistant, and only a combined 16% of city residents said the same.
- Of the rural residents who said they will not get vaccinated at all, nearly three-quarters were Republicans or Republican leanings, and 41% were white Evangelical Christians.
It comes down to: Rural, Republican tough states are likely blowing through their vaccine-greedy populations.