Americans, used to being winners, are now looking around and seeing a country that cannot secure its own seat of government … that is struggling to distribute a vaccine … that was looted by Russia … that was half a year late with a stimulus plan that both sides wanted … that can’t even orchestrate a peaceful transfer of power.
Why it matters: This is weakness, not strength. The democracy that will take over President-elect Biden is torn, archaic and precarious.
In numbers: The consent of the governed is at the heart of American democracy. But Biden will lack that basic authority.
- 40% of Americans and 80% of Trump voters say they believe Biden is not the legitimate winner of the 2020 election – most of the holdouts in US election history.
- 145 members of Congress, including 7 senators, voted to discard the votes of the Pennsylvania electoral college – a move intended to hand victory to the election loser.
The big picture: Presidential democracies (think France and Brazil) are prone to crises at the best of times. None has lasted nearly as long as America’s.
- It was fragile and old even before Trump was elected, charged with an anachronistic electoral college, a dangerously long transition between election and inauguration, and a deeply gerrymandered quilt of state and federal constituencies.
- “You can no longer lump American democracy together with Canada, Germany and Japan,” said Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group. “We are now halfway between them and Hungary.”
What’s next: If Trump as a citizen is criminally prosecuted, expect the crisis to get worse. On the other hand, if he not Criminal prosecution as a citizen, half the country will take that as a message that the president is truly above the law and has widespread impunity – even when he incites an attempted uprising.
Our thought bubble, from Axios’ Sara Fischer: The erosion of peaceful democracy in America has not happened in a vacuum. US adversaries, notably Russia, have long sought to undermine US democracy through sophisticated state-sponsored cyber and disinformation campaigns.
- Those campaigns have eroded trust in the press and confused the American information ecosystem, creating a state of chaotic tribalism in the US.