Joe Douglas can borrow the title for these off-season Jets from NBA superstar LeBron James. This is the decision for Douglas.
The 44-year-old general manager won’t be making his announcement on a prime-time TV special, but he needs to find out who will be his quarterback in 2021, and possibly beyond, in the coming weeks. Will Douglas stay with Sam Darnold for a fourth season, hoping a new coaching staff and a better supporting cast will help him improve? Will he line up a # 2 quarterback overalls and trade Darnold? The decision comes with so many layers and can be viewed in so many ways that it makes the most compelling appeal for a manager and franchise in recent New York sports history.
“It’s the biggest decision of his career,” said Dan Orlovsky, former NFL quarterback and ESPN analyst. “It’s probably the Jets’ biggest decision in, I don’t know, 40 years. It’s huge. “
Get this wrong and the Jets will be looking for a new GM in a few years. Get this right and Douglas will be on his way to retrieve the Jets from the wilderness they have been wandering in for the past decade.
The decision has multiple layers to investigate. For our purposes, let’s put aside the opportunity to trade for Texan star Deshaun Watson, which still seems unlikely at this point. Let’s focus on Darnold vs. the college quarterbacks, led by BYU’s Zach Wilson.
The Darnold Debate
The Jets have Darnold No. 3 in the hopes they found their franchise quarterback. Instead, he has been a confusing player. There are moments of brilliance interspersed with more play that will leave you scratching your head. Injuries and illnesses cost him 10 games and prevented him from playing a full season.
The debate that is now raging on talk radio and Jets Twitter about Darnold is also taking place within the organization. Some see untapped potential held back by a bad surrounding cast. Others are ready to move on.
It is impossible to defend Darnold using statistics. As of 2018, there have been 42 quarterbacks who have thrown at least 500 steps. Darnold’s QB rating of 78.6 is 41 out of 42. Only Josh Rosen’s 63.5 is lower. Darnold has been intercepted 39 times, the fifth highest pick in the last three years.
On the other side of the debate, people are pointing to the fact that Darnold will not turn 24 until June and has not received much help in his career. Robert Saleh would be his third head coach in four years. Mike LaFleur would be his third offensive coordinator. The franchise has been unstable since Darnold arrived. The GM who fielded him, Mike Maccagnan, was fired from Darnold after season one.
Then there’s the talent around him – or the lack of it. Darnold has played with an ever-changing cast of players. This is the number of different starters he has played with in each attacking position: 15 wide receivers, nine tight ends, seven running backs, seven left guards, five right guards, five right tackles, four centers and four left tackles. Of those 56 players, none has made a Pro Bowl as Jet.
Darnold’s coaching is also in question. Former head coach Adam Gase’s attack finished last in the NFL in total yards in each of the past two years. Gase, who was hired to bring out the best in Darnold, admitted that he didn’t make it to the quarterback. Darnold has achieved a passer-by rating of 100 or higher in seven games in his career. Four of those came in his rookie season, three in 2019 and none last year, as he appeared to be slowing down.
That leads to the question of how much better Darnold could be at LaFleur’s onslaught and whether Douglas can improve upon the offense this year through free agency and design, something that would give pro-Darnold folks hope.
“I think he’s gotten into situations that are sometimes difficult to develop,” said Matt Bowen, who played in the NFL for seven seasons and is now an ESPN analyst. “When you have multiple head coaches, multiple players playing, when you have a talent-deficient squad around you, it is sometimes difficult to evaluate. You have to go back to the properties. I think Sam Darnold does have high-level traits on the position. The question for the Jets is, do those traits fit in with LaFleur’s attack? Which I think is one of the best fouls in the NFL today. “
Saleh and LaFleur take the Kyle Shanahan attack from San Francisco. It is an offense considered quarterback friendly due to its heavy emphasis on movement, play-action, and rollouts. Darnold has always been good on the move, and LaFleur’s attack could maximize that. There are many coaches and executives in the NFL who privately agree with Bowen and still see the potential of superstars in Darnold and believe that, in the right attack, he can realize his potential.
Another factor in Darnold’s decision is finances. Darnold has another year on his $ 4.6 million rookie contract. There is also a fifth year option for 2022, which is $ 18.9 million. The Jets are unlikely to pick up that option. If they stay with Darnold, that means they either have to move on after this year or commit to him with an extension. However, if they draft a quarterback, they would start over with a quarterback for his rookie deal and at least five years of team control.
Many in the league believe the Jets could get a second-round pick for Darnold this year or next year, in addition to a mid-round pick.
“If you sit here and tell me we’re going to get a quarterback because we think in the next three years he’ll be as good as Sam Darnold, if not better, and it resets our financial timetable. don’t sit and say, ‘No, that’s stupid’, especially with the financial flexibility, “Orlovsky said.” But I also know this: if you take a quarterback and he just gets OK and Sam Darnold goes elsewhere and plays well, woo, good luck. “
The college option
This would have been easy if the 2020 Jets hadn’t won two games in December. We’d be talking about Trevor Lawrence, the can’t-miss kid, number 1 overall. Instead, the quarterback picture at number 2 is more cloudy.
There is no consensus No. 2 quarterback in this design. BYU’s Zach Wilson has gained the most momentum since the end of the season, but he also played a cupcake schedule. Justin Fields in the state of Ohio has perhaps the most impressive properties. North Dakota State’s Trey Lance is a bit of a mystery after just one game last season and 17 in total in college. Alabama’s Mac Jones won many games with the Crimson Tide, but had an All-Star team around him.
The Jets design board will pile up with those four quarterbacks … and one more.
“I’d put Sam Darnold on the design board,” Bowen said. I’d say where we judge him based on his college and pro tape? If you rank him higher than Wilson and Fields, you’ll stick with him. It’s that simple. If you don’t, move it. “
The Jets must also evaluate what else they can do with the No. 2 pick if they keep Darnold. They could trade it for a pack of concept picks for a team that has fallen in love with one of the quarterbacks. They could take the best non-quarterback in the draft to help out Darnold. That could be a wide receiver like LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase or Alabama’s DeVonta Smith, or it could be an offensive strike from Oregon pairing Penei Sewell with last year’s pick, Mekhi Becton.
‘I’ve never been a big Darnold fan. He is a converting machine. That’s what he is, ”said Dan Shonka, a longtime NFL scout who is now the general manager of OurLads scouting services. “Having said that, I think if I were Joe Douglas, I would line up Penei Sewell at that tackle spot. Now you have a few bookend tackles for as long as Becton can hold out. “
Shonka is not as high on Wilson as others. Wilson has skyrocketed in the media’s concept boards for the past two months. Former NFL quarterback Chris Simms even rated him above Lawrence last week. Shonka has reservations about the BYU quarterback, who had a weak schedule in 2020. He has rated him the No. 5 quarterback behind Lawrence, Jones, Fields and Lance. Shonka also questions Wilson’s durability due to his light 6-foot-3, 210-pound frame and the fact that he’s already undergone shoulder surgery.
“You hear the herd mentality with Zach Wilson,” Shonka said. “I want to tell you that Zach Wilson may not last in the National Football League. He is a man with a narrow shoulder. He’s a very accurate, smart guy, good anticipation and all. But he’s not really a big guy. “
Orlovsky is a bigger fan of Wilson, who he says has traits he thinks will carry over to the NFL.
“Wilson plays a FOMO style of football – fear of missing out,” said Orlovsky. He’s made me say more ‘Holy fudge’ this year than any quarterback on tape. There is a lot to see in his game. He has fast hands. He reminds me [former MLB star] Omar Vizquel. He is very fast with his hands. “
Fields’ trajectory was the opposite of Wilson’s. His popularity peaked in the semifinals of the College Football Playoff with his performance against Clemson. If the trip had been the next day, he would have been second choice. But his game has since been taken apart.
“I think Fields is incredibly talented. He’s intentional, ”Orlovsky said. “You have to find out if he’s going to develop from that, because being deliberate in the NFL isn’t good at the moment. For a guy who’s incredibly athletic, he doesn’t play super fast. Are you sure he will? “
Bowen believes part of the deliberate nature of Fields game is due to Ohio State’s violation of deep, longer-developing routes. He maintains that Fields often waited for the recipient, rather than slow to process.
Bowen said Fields has skills that cannot be taught.
“The qualities are important,” Bowen said. “They have to matter, because you can’t make them.”
Lance and Jones both have supporters too, but seem less likely to be candidates for the # 2 Jets.
The final decision
Douglas now has to call in one of the toughest offseason ever to judge prospects. He won’t be able to have private training or even eat with the college players. He will attend Pro Days, starting with Lance’s on Friday, and debate with the scouts and coaches on the way to making the call that will determine the near – and possibly long-term – future of the Jets.
Douglas has been at work for 21 months. The next month plus leading up to the first round on April 29, his legacy could be with the Jets.
“I always think that general managers have left a mark on their soccer team,” said Bowen. Joe Douglas hasn’t done that yet. So what’s it gonna be? I think this is it. This is what the decision is going to mean. ”