After Momentous 2020, the Russian Putin will enter the new year as powerful as ever

He advocated greater restrictions on the Internet and made it more difficult to hold political protests. On Friday, Russian lawmakers passed a bill that the Kremlin has backed to designate individuals and groups who engage in political activities and receive money from abroad as “foreign agents,” putting them under tighter restrictions.

Even if Mr Putin makes Russians guess his plans for the end of his current term in 2024, these moves show that the Kremlin is preparing to defend itself against threats to its power, analysts said.

“Next year, Putin will act as a brutal, disloyal autocrat, ready to isolate Russia to an even greater degree,” said Andrei Kolesnikov, an expert on Russian domestic policy at Carnegie Moscow Center. “And the more challenges his regime face, the tougher and ‘sovereign’ he is. No signs of even symbolic liberalization. “

The adoption in July of changes to the nation’s 1990s constitution was a pivotal moment for the Russian leader. It reflects Kremlin’s belief that Mr. Putin enjoys popular support for an extension of his power, despite polls showing an erosion of enthusiasm for his leadership, said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R. Politik, an independent agency for political analysis.

“He was finally able to fulfill his dream of creating a real Putin regime with his own constitution and system,” she said.

Even as Mr Putin wanted to bolster his power this year, dissent has simmered. Mass protests in the Far East city of Khabarovsk in July over the arrest of a popular regional governor quickly turned into an expression of growing discontent with declining incomes, poor public services, including health care as the country was hit by the coronavirus, and Mr. . Putin’s rule.

On Saturday, Russia registered 29,258 new cases of coronavirus, according to data from the Russian government, bringing the total number of infections across the country to just over three million – the world’s fourth largest caseload after the US, India and Brazil.

Putin awaited the protesters, and the crowd has since disappeared. But the anger reflects a rift between the Kremlin and the average Russians.

“The gap between the Kremlin and society is widening,” said Mr Kolesnikov.

Russia’s most prominent opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, has sought to capitalize on public frustration by investigating allegations of government corruption and excessive government, and helping organize voting strategies against the Kremlin in regional elections.

But in August, Mr. Navalny fell ill after being exposed to what European doctors said: exposure to the nerve agent Novichok – a substance that only state actors could access, analysts and intelligence officials said.

Mr. Navalny and his supporters believe the Kremlin has the brains behind the failed plot to kill him. Moscow has denied any involvement. Mr Putin said earlier this month that if Russian intelligence agents wanted to kill Mr Navalny, “we would have done the job”.

In response, the European Union has imposed sanctions on members of Mr Putin’s inner circle. Russia responded in the same way.

“What I see is that the regime no longer has any means of compromise, of tolerating critics, and has lost the ability to deal peacefully with political risks,” said Ms Stanovaya. “The only way he knows how to behave is to use oppression.”

Over the next year, the Kremlin could further harass Russia’s so-called systemic opposition, or opposition groups and political parties tolerated by the government. Meanwhile, opposition groups like Mr Navalny’s will be suppressed – or possibly destroyed, analysts say.

The Kremlin has rejected claims that it is trying to suppress dissent. In a March interview with the state news agency TASS, Putin said opposing votes were essential.

“There has always been a certain section of society in any country that disagrees with the authorities in power,” said the Russian leader. “And it is very good that such people exist.”

In the global arena, this year, Mr Putin extended a political lifeline to Belarusian beleaguered President Alexander Lukashenko, who has faced protests since a flawed August 9 presidential election and demanded his resignation. The Russian leader committed to military and financial support for his Belarusian counterpart.

Putin also struck a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh in November. The agreement supports the Kremlin’s status as a regional power broker and ensures its influence over both countries. Russia already had a military base in Armenia, with which it also shares economic ties, but the peace agreement places Russian troops in Azerbaijan for the first time.

Most of the former Soviet states “are our allies,” Mr Putin told his National Security Council in August. “Our interests coincide in many ways, both economically and politically. This is undoubtedly one of our foreign policy priorities. “

In an interview, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said this year’s crises, as well as Western sanctions and a “persistently unfriendly environment,” demanded decisive action from Moscow.

The crises “demanded harshness from the president, speed of decision-making,” he said. “Overall, we are of course convinced that the main task was to maintain stability in all directions [and] this has been preserved. “

Russia has struck deals to sell its Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine to other countries, analysts say Moscow could be able to exercise soft power over recipient countries, particularly in South America and the Middle East.

Next year, Putin could demand a return on the aid he provided, analysts said. He will likely demand that Mr. Lukashenko give up the Kremlin’s long-standing efforts to get his smaller neighbor closer to his orbit. The Armenian and Azerbaijani governments are likely to be more respectful of Russia, as they depend on Mr Putin to stop a resumption of fighting in the South Caucasus.

Tensions with the West are likely to continue this year, especially with the arrival of the Biden government. This month’s revelations of a suspected Russian cyber-attack on the US federal government that breached at least six cabinet departments further affected relations between Moscow and Washington.

But antagonism towards the West, according to his supporters, could work in Mr Putin’s favor at home.

The perception is that “if Putin had been bad for Russia, he wouldn’t have been so attacked,” said Sergey Markov, the pro-Kremlin director of the Institute of Political Studies in Moscow. “The more the enemy rages, the further we move towards a better future. For Putin, there is nothing special here. [It is] a natural process of attacking a successful Russian president. “

—Nonna Fomenko contributed to this article.

Write to Ann M. Simmons at [email protected]