Africa, ill-equipped and without vaccines, is grappling with a more deadly Covid-19 spike

A new, more communicable strain of the disease, first discovered in South Africa, is leading to infections in neighboring countries and has been found thousands of miles away in countries like Ghana. The death rate for the entire continent exceeded the global average for the first time in January. From Senegal to Zambia, daily cases have increased to about double the previous peak.

“The second wave is here with vengeance and our systems are overwhelmed,” said John Nkengasong, director of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The new deadlier wave could widen the gap between the world’s richest and poorest countries. Unlike in wealthier countries, African economies cannot afford to repeat last year’s hard lockdowns, according to the International Monetary Fund, which plunged the continent into its worst recession since the records began.

African countries are also still waiting for a vaccine. While 50 of the world’s richest countries have administered some 40 million doses, only two in sub-Saharan Africa – the island states of Mauritius and the Seychelles – have started rolling out shots. World Health Organization Director General Tedros Ghebreyesus warned last week that vaccine hoarding in wealthy countries is a “catastrophic moral failure.”

“The price of this failure will be paid for the living and livelihoods of the world’s poorest countries,” he said.

This dynamic has led many scientists to warn of a further increase in infections during the winter in the Southern Hemisphere in May and June.

“We are getting a third wave, even a fourth … There is no light at the end of the tunnel for African countries,” said Tivani Mashamba, professor of diagnostic research at the University of Pretoria. “This pandemic has only just begun.”

Certainly, the known death toll across Africa is still much lower than in the US and Europe. The lack of testing capacity, limited access to data, and secret governments have made it difficult to determine the true extent of the virus in much of the continent.

Scientists in Zambia tested bodies in the largest mortuary in Lusaka on Covid-19 during the country’s first wave of infections between June and September and found nearly 20% positive. Only a fraction had been tested for the disease before death. The median age of those who died of Covid-19 was 48, much lower than in developed countries.

The government of Tanzania insists it is virus-free and has criminalized coverage of the pandemic. Yet scientists in Ghana recently found the South African strain of coronavirus in a traveler from Tanzania.

The surge puts underfunded health care systems of 1.2 billion people across the continent under pressure. Hospital beds are running out in Zambia and Uganda, so many people have to be treated at home. From Senegal to South Africa, thousands of workers are crowding in shared minibus taxis, despite a record increase in new infections. Even in countries like Rwanda, which was hailed during the first wave for its effective lockdown and surveillance policies, the recent rise in the number of cases is much greater.

“We see a series of patients coming in and we reject patients,” said Rashida Ferrand, Professor of International Health at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who also works at the main Covid-19 public treatment center in Parirenyatwa. hospital in Harare, Zimbabwe. “It’s on a first come, first served basis.”

All 60 places in the hospital’s Covid-19 isolation ward are occupied, as are the four beds of the hospital’s intensive care unit, while many nurses fall ill.

In the first two weeks of January, about 40% of health workers at major Harare public hospitals tested positive with symptoms of Covid-19, according to doctors who run the program. This month, the country lost its Foreign, Transport and Provincial Affairs ministers to Covid-19.

Across southern Africa, the recent increase in infections coincided with the discovery of the South African variety, which researchers say is up to 50% more transmissible than previous versions. During the holidays, thousands of migrant workers traveled home from South Africa and took the new tribe in crowded buses to neighboring Zimbabwe, Mozambique and nearby Zambia – all of which saw record numbers of cases in the following weeks.

Researchers in Zambia and doctors in Botswana soon discovered that patients there became ill from the variant. Other countries, such as Zimbabwe, lack the infrastructure to sequence viruses found in Covid-19 tests.

Meanwhile, there is an acute oxygen shortage in a continent where there are fewer fans than New York City, where less than 1% of the African population lives.

In Zimbabwe and Nigeria, a black market for oxygen bottles has emerged on social media, forcing relatives of the sick to outbid each other for scarce supplies.

UniGas, one of the foremost providers of medical oxygen in Zimbabwe, handles more than 100 requests daily from family members looking for oxygen tanks and concentrators to treat sick family members at home. The company has added staff and additional services to disinfect and refill bottles. “We work around the clock,” said Kuda Katurura, the company’s executive director.

In Nigeria, the Air Force is producing an emergency oxygen supply following an increase in cases in Lagos, the continent’s most populous city. The shortages are especially acute in public hospitals, where doctors say they are forced to ration oxygen and in some cases refuse treatment.

“We only have a small amount of oxygen in the ICU for the most severe cases,” said Folarin Opawoye, a doctor in Lagos. “We have to run between floors with jerry cans to try to save the patients.”

In the Senegalese capital of Dakar, the government is struggling to get its citizens to adhere to social distance measures, such as curfews.

“Those in power, curfew or no curfew, have the means to provide for their families,” said Mamadou Fall, a driver who usually takes visitors to and from the city’s international airport. “But we have to take into account the poor people who live in working-class areas.”

Write to Joe Parkinson at [email protected] and Gabriele Steinhauser at [email protected]