According to the latest forecast from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), more than 600,000 Americans will have died from Covid-19 by June 1.
The model predicted a death toll of 614,503 Americans – slightly lower than the previous forecast released last week, which predicted 631,000 deaths.
According to the IHME, warmer weather and wider vaccination could help reduce transmission between now and August.
“We expect vaccination will reach 145 million adults by June 1 and upscaling will prevent 114,000 deaths,” IHME said in a statement.
More than 50 million doses of vaccine have been administered nationwide, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. And if 95% of Americans start wearing masks for the next week, 34,000 lives could be saved.
The British variant: Spread of the B.1.1.7 virus variant, first identified in the UK, could complicate possible deterioration. At least 981 cases of the B.1.1.7 variant have been found in 37 states, the CDC said this week.
The team said it had taken into account the expected variants distribution in its projections for this forecast. In the worst case scenario, the death toll in the US could reach 645,000 on June 1.
Other factors: Progress could also be reversed if people let their guards down, IHME said.
“Transmission is limited in winter by wearing a mask, reduced mobility and avoiding hazardous environments such as eating indoors,” said IHME. “As the number of daily cases decreases and vaccination increases, behavior is likely to change towards an increased risk of transmission.”