Southwest Iceland is currently experiencing a swarm “ of seismic activity, with more than 20,000 earthquakes recorded since Feb. 24, according to the Icelandic Meteorological Bureau. The office said magma movements are likely to be the cause of the current wave in the Reykjanes peninsula, sparking fears of a volcanic eruption.
According to the office, more than 3,100 earthquakes have occurred on the peninsula in the past 48 hours alone. At least 63 of them had a magnitude of 3 or higher. A magnitude 3 earthquake can be felt, but rarely causes damage; as the numbers increase, the earthquakes become more dangerous.
Similar eruptions of seismic activity in the country have previously triggered volcanic eruptions, the office said.
The aviation color code for the Reykjanes peninsula is orange, meaning that there is “increased unrest” and that there is “a greater likelihood of eruption,” the office said.
The government of Iceland said on its website on Thursday that there was a volcanic tremor near Mt. Keilir, which is on the peninsula, on Wednesdays.
While the government initially said this “could lead to an impending volcanic eruption,” the Scientific Council for Civil Protection said on Friday that data from the past 24 hours “gives no indication that magma is getting closer to the surface.”
“During this period, the chances of an eruption are not high,” the council said, noting that “the situation could change quickly.”
If an eruption does occur, data suggests it is likely to be in the area between Fagradalsfjall and Keilir.
The government said on its website that if there is an eruption, it is expected to be a “relatively” small fissure eruption that can last up to a few weeks. These kinds of eruptions, the government said, involve a “slow flow” of lava rather than large explosions or significant ash.
The government has said there is a “very low” risk to populated areas and critical infrastructure, and Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir said the country is “exceptionally well prepared”.
“Iceland has highly trained, skilled and experienced professionals in this field,” Jakobsdóttir said in a statement. “Most importantly, the Icelandic public is used to calmly dealing with many different types of natural events related to weather or geology.”
The last major volcanic eruption in southern Iceland took place in 2010. It was the first time in nearly 200 years that the Eyjafjallajökull volcano erupted and hundreds of people were forced to evacuate the area.
As with the current event, the Eyjafjallajökull eruption occurred after a month filled with thousands of small earthquakes.
The government said an eruption of Mt. Keilir “will not produce large fumes that could disrupt international aviation,” although it would temporarily disrupt air traffic. All drone flights were in the area on Wednesday prohibited in the event of an eruption.