The annulment of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s sentences shocked Brazil and will force the redistribution of the letters in a country radicalized by far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, who will now face a major rival in the 2022 elections.
The decision, announced by a court on Monday, adds a new variable to the serious crisis the country is experiencing, with more than 266,000 deaths from the coronavirus pandemic and unemployment at its highest historical level.
The former left-wing president (2003-2010) was not acquitted, as the magistrate decided to try him again in another court for procedural errors. But the decision allows his return to the ring, and this “will polarize political narratives,” said Arko Advice analyst Murillo de Aragao.
Bolsonaro can radicalize his speech and Lula can say he was prosecuted. The stories are given a strong tone, ”he explains.
“The presence of Lula will clearly hinder the electoral chances of a centrist candidate,” and prefers polarization with Bolsonaro, the consultancy Eurasia Group underlined.
Redemocratization
Lula, 75, has competed in every election since the re-democratization in 1985, except 2018, when he surpassed Bolsonaro in polls, but was disqualified for the first of his two convictions for passive corruption and money laundering.
Bolsonaro won in the second round against Fernando Haddad, nominated by Lula. The match divided the country between supporters of the leftist Workers’ Party (which ruled for thirteen years, with Lula and Dilma Rousseff) and its opponents, who embraced the figure of the former army captain, backed by ultra-conservative Pentecostal churches and agribusiness lobbies. . and safety.
Last Sunday, a poll by pollster Ipec revealed that Lula would be the only candidate with political capital superior to Bolsonaro.
While the study didn’t run into them in a direct duel, it showed that the former president has 50% popular support, compared to 38% for Bolsonaro.