‘A Organic Fukushima’: Brazil’s COVID-19 Deaths Are On Track To Weather Worst US Wave

RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) – Brazil’s brutal rise in COVID-19 deaths will soon surpass January’s worst record wave in the United States, scientists predict, with fatalities hitting over 4,000 a day for the first time on Tuesday. rise as the outbreak overwhelms hospitals.

The total death toll in Brazil only follows the US outbreak, with nearly 337,000 deaths, according to Department of Health data, compared to more than 555,000 deaths in the United States.

But with health care in Brazil at breaking point, the country could exceed the total number of deaths in the US, despite a population two-thirds that of the United States, two experts told Reuters.

“It is a nuclear reactor that has caused a chain reaction and is no longer under control. It’s a biological Fukushima, ”said Miguel Nicolelis, a Brazilian physician and professor at Duke University who is closely monitoring the virus.

On Tuesday, the Health Department reported a further 4,195 COVID-19 deaths in the past 24 hours, well above the country’s previous one-day record. Brazil has been recording daily death records every week since late February as a more contagious local variety and lean social distance efforts fuel an uncontrolled outbreak.

With massive vaccinations curbing the US outbreak, Brazil has become the epicenter of the pandemic, contributing about one in four deaths per day worldwide, according to an analysis by Reuters.

President Jair Bolsonaro has withdrawn from wearing masks and lockdowns that public health experts say are the best way to reduce the transmission of viruses.

The country dragged its feet last year as the world rushed to secure vaccines, delaying the launch of a national immunization program.

Despite the recent rise, Brazilian officials insist the country could return to something resembling business as usual soon.

“We think Brazil will probably be back up and running in two or three months,” Economy Minister Paulo Guedes said at an online event on Tuesday. “Sure, economic activity is likely to slow down a bit, but it will be much, much less than the decline we suffered last year … and much, much shorter.”

Bolsonaro has responded to mounting political pressure with a dramatic shake-up of half a dozen ministries, giving loyalists a key role in what could be a tough reelection campaign against his political nemesis next year.

While the president has shifted his tone on immunizations and calls out vaccines he recently despised, the far-right former army captain continues to fight in court against state and municipal restrictions on economic activity.

With weak measures that don’t fight the contamination, COVID-19 cases and deaths in Brazil are piling up faster than ever.

Nicolelis and Christovam Barcellos, a researcher at the Brazilian medical institute Fiocruz, separately predict that Brazil could surpass the United States in both the total number of deaths and the record average number of deaths per day.

According to a model from the influential Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, Brazil could already break the record of the seven-day average of COVID-19 in the US next week. The US average for daily deaths peaked at 3,285 in January.

The IHME forecast currently does not go beyond July 1, when Brazil is predicted to reach 563,000 deaths, compared to 609,000 total US fatalities by then.