Bitcoin prices could soon reach $ 300,000, but then sink into a dark period, if history is any gauge, according to an expert.
Bobby Lee, co-founder and former CEO of crypto exchange BTCC, told CNBC Asia in an interview on Monday that bitcoin BTCUSD,
tends to operate in four-year bull cycles, with leaps and bounds in 2013, 2017 and the most recent rise this year representing the latest upward trend for the world’s most prominent crypto.
However, if the pattern is correct, there will likely also be a fallow period for the asset created in 2009 that could last two or three years, “if history plays again,” Lee told CNBC, adding that he is not sure. “History will repeat itself,” but notes that the burgeoning ascent has followed a predictable pattern since its inception so far.
“I don’t know if history will repeat itself, but what we do know is that bitcoin bull market cycles come every four years and this is a big one,” said Lee.
Lee predicted that bitcoin could reach $ 100,000 by the end of the summer and possibly $ 300,000 by the end of 2021.
After a possible 10x rise in bitcoin at the end of the year, it will likely come back to Earth, if it sticks to moves in the past two other bull phases.
Sure, bitcoin’s bullish trading patterns over the past decade don’t provide a statistically robust sample size, but it could be something cheerful investors cling to, at least until the values crater.
“Bull market cycles come and go and after a peak in the bull market, it can inevitably fall quite a bit and then the bubble bursts,” said Lee.
Bitcoin is up 96% so far in 2021, compared to a gain of nearly 7% since the start of the year for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,
an increase of 5% for the S&P 500 index SPX,
a gain of 4% for the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP,
and a drop of more than 8% for gold GC00,
Show FactSet data.
“In the crypto industry we call it bitcoin winter and it can last for two to three years. So after it reaches its peak … people need to be aware that it can drop as much as 80% to 90% of its value from its highest peak ever, ”he explained.
At the last check, bitcoin was trading at $ 56,728, down 1% on Monday and not far from its recent all-time high of $ 61,556.59, according to CoinDesk.