The Israeli general says it will be difficult to stop the nuclear program

As Iran increases uranium enrichment to 60%, a short jump to military grade by 90%, world powers are trying to persuade the Islamic Republic to take a break.

Meetings designed to bring both Iran and the United States back to some form of the nuclear deal signed in 2015, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, restarted this week in Austria.

While Israel is not part of the talks, it is a protagonist of the drama that could quickly escalate.

Israel, along with its Arab allies including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, want the US to increase pressure on Iran by bolstering the JCPOA with terrorism, missile development and what they call “Iran’s expansionism” throughout the Middle -East.

Iran and Israel are engaged in a shadow war that has intensified over the past month. An explosion disrupted one of Iran’s nuclear power plants in Natanz; one of Iran’s spy ships was hit with an explosive in the Red Sea; and at least two cargo ships owned by Israel have been targeted.

Iran’s decision to increase uranium enrichment came after the explosion in Natanz, which the Islamic Republic of Israel has blamed.

Israel has vowed to destroy Iran’s nuclear program if all else fails, and they have experience in that area.

Forty years ago, in June 1981, eight Israeli F-16s took off, flew over the Red Sea, straddled the Jordan-Saudi border and dropped their bombs on Iraq’s nuclear power plant in Osirak, days before it would get hot. It was called Operation Opera, and one of the pilots was General Amos Yadlin.

In 2007, while serving as chief of military intelligence for the Israeli Defense Forces, Yadlin helped launch a second operation. This was aimed at Syria’s secret nuclear power plant. Operation Orchard was also a success – the target was completely destroyed.

Yadlin said that when it comes down to it, it will be very different this time: “Saddam and Assad were surprised. Iran has been waiting for this attack for 20 years.”

Yadlin said Iran’s program is “much stronger and more dispersed,” while Iraq’s and Syria’s nuclear programs were concentrated in one place. Iran’s nuclear program is located in dozens of locations, many of which are buried deep under the mountains. In addition, it is not clear that intelligence agencies know full details of the locations of Iran’s program.

“Iran has learned from what we have done, but we have also learned from what we have done and now we have more options,” said Yadlin.

Military planners in Israel say, regardless of the Vienna talks, they have five strategies to stop Iran:

• Option 1: Push for a stronger agreement between Iran, US, Russia, China, France, Germany and UK.
• Option 2: Show Iran that the costs in terms of sanctions and diplomacy are too high to continue on the current path.
• Option 3: What is known in Israel as “Strategy C” – using covert attacks, clandestine actions and cyber attacks. Essentially, try anything but war.
• Option 4: Bomb Iran’s nuclear program.
• Option 5: Push for regime change in Iran. This is the most difficult strategy.

Because of the strength of the Ayatollahs – their control of the military, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a mighty force known for its brutality, fueling the Basij’s internal rebellion is a long shot.

However, according to Ali Nader, an Iran analyst with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, the regime is becoming less popular domestically and the country has seen several protests erupt in recent years. The main reason for those protests is a faltering economy, badly hit by US sanctions that serve as the main US lever against Iran in the Vienna nuclear talks.

“The US has a complete grasp of Iran’s economy,” said Nader. In 2018, Iran held cash reserves worth more than $ 120 billion. Sanctions have caused that stock to drop to about $ 4 billion by 2020, according to estimates by the International Monetary Fund.

The first thing Iran wants during these talks is for the US to ease sanctions, allowing it to freely sell oil to Asia and Europe. According to the International Energy Agency, which oversees oil production and shipments, Iran is bypassing sanctions and increasing supplies to China.

In January, Iranian oil shipments to China reached record levels. Nader believes that by not doing more to enforce those sanctions, the US is signaling that it is ready to make a deal.

However, the big question for the conversations is who influences what is becoming a chicken game.

Henry Rome follows the negotiations as an analyst for Eurasia Group. He doesn’t expect a breakdown or a breakthrough, as both sides try to get the other to take the first step.

With Iran to elect a new president in two months, Rome said, “Iran does not want to be seen as desperate, the supreme leader would rather wait until after the June 18 elections before making any concessions at all.”

“Iran is playing a weak hand, but they are very good at that,” said Rome.

Yadlin is nervous that the US is too eager for a deal and giving too much away, reiterating that what he calls the 2015 deal’s mistakes. Yadlin points to Iran’s enrichment performance, hitting the symbolic 60%.

“The first deal turns out to be a problem, look at how fast they move,” said Yadlin. “They could have enough enriched uranium to get to two or three bombs quickly.”

While there may still be some work to be done in terms of delivery methods and armaments, Yadlin has no doubt that they have the knowledge to make atomic bombs.