London – Iranian and US negotiators resumed talks in Vienna on Thursday that eventually ended the nuclear deal hit back in 2015. But that’s a big one could
This week, Iran ramped up its uranium enrichment program in yet another breach of the deal, which now, with the US stopped and Iran violating multiple rules, is now barely alive.
President Joe Biden’s administration wants to reverse his predecessor’s unilateral withdrawal from the nuclear deal, but the process was always going to be a delicate one. Sunday’s attack on Iran’s nuclear facility in Natanz further complicated matters.
Iran reacted to what it called an act of “nuclear terrorism” by Israel with the announcement that it would happen start enriching uranium up to 60% purity – a big step up from the current maximum of 20%.
While 60% enriched uranium is still not technically suitable for weapons (90% or more), having a stockpile of it could shorten the time it takes Iran to make a bomb – something Iran is fiercely insisting that it doesn’t want to do.
Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP
President Hassan Rouhani said bluntly that “60% enrichment is an answer to your wickedness,” making it clear that the Iranian regime holds the US and Israel both responsible for the current escalation of tension.
Iran said Friday it had begun enriching uranium to higher levels. The country has said it plans to use the 60% fortified product for radiopharmaceuticals, which can be used to treat diseases, including cancer.
But France, Germany and the UK, three countries also parties to the Vienna negotiations, expressed “grave concern” about the move, saying Iran had “no credible civilian need for enrichment at this level.”
In fact, the extra enriched uranium would be less valuable to Iran as a medical tool than as a new bargaining chip in Vienna.
Stopping 60% enrichment is now one more thing Iran can offer in exchange for lifting US sanctions.
The talks are lengthy because Iran refused to meet with US negotiators in person. All proposals and counter-proposals must be sent back and forth by European diplomats.
A senior US State Department official speaking to reporters last week revealed the frustration this is causing.
“For all these questions you can imagine how difficult it is for the United States to say it to the EU, the EU to the Iranians, the Iranians to the EU and then come back to us,” the official said. “That just really makes it slower and more complicated.”
There is no doubt that both parties want a deal. Iran needs US sanctions to be lifted so that it can freely start selling oil to support its crippled economy. The US wants international cooperation and surveillance to ensure that Iran does not secretly build nuclear weapons that would destabilize the Middle East.
The first round of negotiations last week was about setting an agenda – listing the things that both the US and Iran would need to do to return to the terms of the nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
“In general, the discussions have been productive,” a State Department representative said of last week’s talks. “The atmosphere was very constructive.”
This week, if all goes well, Iran and the US – again through European intermediaries – will find out in more detail who does what and when. They will also look at how each move can be verified. For example, if the US is committed to lifting sanctions on oil sales, how much oil will Iran want to trade before it is sure there are no snags?
Iranian Leader News Agency / Handout / Getty
Currently, Iran’s supreme leader is firmly on the fence about the negotiations. On the one hand, he said they are probably a waste of time.
“The offers they offer are usually arrogant and demeaning … not worth looking at,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a speech on Monday, the first day of Ramadan.
On the other hand, he is letting talks continue even after Sunday’s very damaging and humiliating attack on the Natanz nuclear facility.
However, there is a chance that if things don’t go well in Vienna this week, Khamenei could decide to delay or even interrupt talks until after Iran’s national elections in June, when a tough new president will have taken office.
With Iran taking significant steps away from the nuclear deal – including Friday’s claim of 60% uranium enrichment – the impending shift in the presidency could put a return to the deal completely out of reach.