Washington – In a new report released Tuesday, the US intelligence community warned of a “diverse set” of global threats that could further destabilize a world shaken by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, technology change and international competition.
The 2021 Annual Threat Assessment, a 27-page unclassified document outlining the collective vision of the country’s 18 intelligence agencies, said that “ the potential of sequential events in an increasingly interconnected and mobile world ” is new and would create unique challenges as known opponents continue to do so. jockey for influence and climate change increases instability.
The report said China, Russia, Iran and North Korea would seek to challenge US interests in different arenas and at multiple levels, and that transnational crime, cyber attacks and terrorist plots posed an ongoing threat. Domestic violent extremists, as the intelligence community predicted in a separate report released last month, will pose a “heightened threat.”
The COVID-19 pandemic, the evaluation said, would “continue to put pressure on governments and societies and fuel humanitarian and economic crises, political unrest and geopolitical competition,” even after the widespread vaccine delivery.
“ The economic ramifications of the pandemic are likely to cause or exacerbate instability in at least a few – and perhaps many – countries as people grow more desperate in the face of interlocking pressures, including ongoing economic downturn, job losses and disrupted supply chains . ‘said the report.
Intelligence officials said Beijing viewed competition with the United States as part of a “groundbreaking geopolitical shift” and that it would continue to amass military, economic and technological capability to maintain the influence of the Chinese Communist Party.
The country would continue to make progress in space and satellite technologies, with a Chinese space station expected to be operational “between 2022 and 2024” and presenting a “productive and effective” cyber threat.
“We continue to assess that China can launch cyber-attacks that could cause at least local, temporary disruptions to critical infrastructure in the United States,” the report said.
Russia will expand its “strategic cooperation” with China and “pose one of the most serious threats to intelligence services to the United States,” officials said, noting that Moscow interfered in the US elections in 2016, 2018 and 2020.
“Moscow almost certainly sees the US election as an opportunity to try to undermine the US global position, sow disagreement in the US, influence US decision-making and influence US voters,” the review said.
Iran, intelligence officials ruled, “is not currently conducting major nuclear weapons development activities that we believe are necessary to produce a nuclear device” – but had resumed some activities in violation of the terms of the 2018 nuclear agreement.
Tehran will continue to use conventional and unconventional tools to undermine the United States, the report said, and remains a “significant threat” in the cyber domain.
According to the evaluation, North Korea’s nuclear ambitions remain constant. Kim Jong-un, its leader, “probably does not see the current pressure on his regime as sufficient to require a fundamental change in his approach.” The cyber threat and conventional military threat from Pyongyang, officials said, would increase.
In a statement accompanying the report, National Intelligence (DNI) Director Avril Haines said the American public “should know as much as possible about the threats our nation faces and what their intelligence agencies are doing to protect them.”
“This report provides transparency to Congress and the citizens of our country with the aim of building trust in our work and institutions,” she said.
Joe Raedle / Getty Images / Bloomberg via Getty Images
Haines and the leaders of major U.S. intelligence and national security forces are expected to testify before two congressional committees about the assessment and other threats on Wednesday and Thursday – the first public appearance in more than two years.
Senate and House intelligence committees each announced last week that their members would receive public testimony from Haines; William Burns, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency; FBI Director Chris Wray; General Paul Nakasone, the Director of the National Security Agency; and Lieutenant General Scott Berrier, the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency.
Known as the Worldwide Threats Hearing, the concerted action has traditionally served as an opportunity for US national security leaders to identify key concerns and explain how their respective agencies are positioned to address global challenges.
The drivers are expected to ask questions about the wide range of threats outlined in the report, but they can also be urged on specific issues such as the impact of the SolarWinds and Microsoft Exchange cyber-intrusions, Iran’s nuclear centrifuge tests and the heightened threat of domestic violent extremism.
The hearing, a long-standing annual tradition, did not take place at all in 2020, after lengthy negotiations between then-DNI John Ratcliffe and the committees over the set-up of the event ended in a stalemate. While the hearing has typically been in two parts – a public, open session with leaders of authorities making opening statements and entering into a question-and-answer period, followed by a session discussing secret cases behind closed doors – Ratcliffe urged the committees to accept a prepared opening statement, but keep the whole of question-and-answer sessions behind closed doors.
Officials familiar with the discussions said the push for a format change was in part to avoid the wrath of then-President Donald Trump, who publicly criticized the assessments presented by his intelligence chiefs at the January 2019 hearing – the last to be held public. .
Congress has since mandated that the intelligence community provide an annual written threat assessment and that the heads of relevant agencies appear for public testimony.
The 2019 review warned of a strategic rapprochement between Russia and China, whose geopolitical interests, intelligence leaders warned, could increasingly align. It also said election interference would increase and that cyber-burglaries would “threaten both the ghosts and the machines in a growing number of ways.”
The evaluation also warned of the potentially devastating consequences of a pandemic, to which the United States would remain “vulnerable”.
“We estimate that the United States and the world will remain vulnerable to the next flu pandemic or large-scale outbreak of an infectious disease that could lead to massive death rates and disability, have serious implications for the global economy, strain international resources and more the United States for support, ” the 2019 review said.
Last week, the National Intelligence Council, a branch of the intelligence community focused on long-term strategic analysis, also released a comprehensive forecast that predicts more frequent and intense global challenges through 2040, ranging from climate change to financial crises.
“These challenges will repeatedly test the resilience and adaptability of communities, states and the international system, often exceeding the capacity of existing systems and models,” the report said. “This looming imbalance between existing and future challenges and the ability of institutions and systems to respond to them is likely to increase and lead to more strife at every level.”