Joe Biden is on the right track. Its approval score is higher than its ever predecessor. Nearly three-quarters of Americans think he is doing a good job in tackling the COVID pandemic. Sixty percent approve of their way of dealing with the economy.
So now is the time for him to start looking at what could be going wrong and focus his attention beyond our limits. It’s no coincidence that the only area where Biden’s ratings lag is on our southern border, where his efforts to solve the problems that exacerbated his predecessor have gone problem after problem, all magnified by the knowledge of desperate immigrants that Donald Trump disappeared.
But that’s not the only place where the world is going to make sense and, as Biden’s predecessors know, the results are often problematic. Barack Obama was chosen to get us out of George W. Bush’s wars and in his freshman year he discovered how difficult that would be and eventually raised our troop level in Afghanistan (despite his vice president’s objections). George Bush fared well until September 11, 2001. Bill Clinton’s first foreign crisis also occurred in his freshman year in office with the Battle of Mogadishu and the infamous Black Hawk Down incident. George HW Bush’s first year in office saw both the uprising and Tiananmen Square massacre as a wave of revolutions in the satellite states of the crumbling Soviet Union that changed the geopolitical landscape.
It’s a very different world today, but two situations unfolding involving Russia and China, still America’s main international rivals, point to the challenges ahead for Biden. Russia has deployed more troops and military assets on the Crimean peninsula and along the Russian-Ukrainian border in recent weeks. And China has become more aggressive towards Taiwan and in the South and East China Seas, which Asian and US military leaders are very concerned about.
While neither a Russian invasion of Ukraine nor a Chinese attack on Taiwan is considered the most likely short-term consequence of their saber rattling, it doesn’t make these situations any less risky. In both cases, this is because the stakes for the US, our interests and allies are very high, and our effective options are limited. It should also be emphasized that in both cases the possibility of military action by our opponents is not zero.
In Ukraine, multiple recent diplomatic talks involving, in various combinations, the Russians, Ukrainians, Germans, French and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe have not been productive. Unsurprisingly, the Russians have said their actions “concern absolutely no one. Russia is not a threat to any country in the world. Not surprisingly, given their track record, their words were greeted with disbelief. The Ukrainian military is on the alert. Nerves are frayed.
With regard to Taiwan and the disputed region of the South and East China Seas, the fear is based on years of gradually accelerating Chinese capability build-up. The Chinese navy has expanded. The deployment and overflights in and around disputed areas have increased. Chinese rhetoric ranged from the impudent to the downright confrontational. Last month, the US top commander in the region told a Senate hearing that he expected the threat against Taiwan to peak within six years. But serious problems seem certain much sooner. A few days ago, China announced that exercises of its carrier group near Taiwan will become regular events and the US responded with a visit by the Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group to the area for the second time this year.
If Russia tried to expand its control in Ukraine or China to deliberately or otherwise cause conflict around Taiwan or disputed islands in waters it claims, the consequences would be a major crisis.
The Biden government is actively involved on both fronts. The president spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky days ago. Days before, Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to his Ukrainian counterpart and said the US was backing Ukraine “in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression.” On a recent trip to Asia, the Secretary of State made it clear that the US would not stand for Chinese “coercion and aggression” and stirred up Chinese hackles when he called Taiwan a country. The US has underlined these points in bilateral meetings. As recently as this week, the US expressed solidarity with the Philippines and opposed the provocative encroachment of Chinese ships in Philippine waters.
Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Chinese Xi Jinping are testing the Biden government, at least to some extent, to see how they will respond to these threats. So far they have seen clarity and determination. But the reality is that whatever our statements and policies, the US is unlikely to take direct military action to defend Ukraine or Taiwan. The potential risk of rapid escalation, major losses and global conflict is simply too great.
That means the Biden team will have to face these crises before they get that far. They must forge a united front with allies to show that the negative consequences of aggression would be severe and that the US will not be isolated. They should make it clear that there are no red lines for actual aggression that will lead to severe sanctions. They must underline that they will provide active support to strengthen the defenses of all our allies in the region. They need to increase military readiness in a way that sends a clear message. And above all, they must find diplomatic means to defuse these tensions.
Should they fail on any of these fronts, even without war, these conflicts could develop into major distractions, create tension with allies, and / or create the appearance of weakness or ineffectiveness in the home. So far, Biden and his team have taken the right steps. In particular, they have distinguished themselves from Trump in their embrace of both multilateralism and diplomacy, while at the same time surprising some with the clarity and strength of their responses to the Chinese and Russians.
But the problem with foreign policy is that the US doesn’t have all the cards. An over-the-top Putin looking to build support at home can resort to his trusty trick of securing a victory in Russia’s nearby overseas. Encounters in the sea and in the air near China can easily lead to accidental collisions and the resulting escalation. China has also been bolder in Hong Kong and the Northwest lately, suggesting that it isn’t much influenced by global public opinion.
These are not the only potential international risks that can complicate President Biden’s life. North Korea remains a risk. Tensions in the Persian Gulf remain high. The likelihood of setbacks in Afghanistan if we call back our presence is also high. In addition, the COVID pandemic is raging around the world, which can lead to recession, vaccine tensions, humanitarian crises and more.
History and current reality work together to provide a compelling reminder that if Joe Biden is to build on his successes to date or maintain his momentum on his domestic agenda, he will need to be alert to the kind of looming dangers worldwide have been undone. even the most capable of its predecessors.