Updated exit polls from two of Israel’s major TV channels show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc with 59 or 60 seats, just below the 61 needed for a majority.
The state of affairs: The first projections released when the polls closed on Tuesday showed Netanyahu’s bloc with 61 seats, which would be enough to form a majority government. The latest results, updated from the early returns, show a very uncertain outcome.
The big picture: Three unclear elections have plunged Israel into a protracted political crisis. If Netanyahu’s bloc wins a majority in Israel’s fourth election in two years, he could form the most religious and conservative coalition in the country’s history and potentially take steps to undermine his corruption process.
- If the broad bloc of anti-Netanyahu parties – ranging from the left to the conservative – gains a majority, there could be an attempt to bring together a government that excludes Netanyahu. That would be very difficult.
- But those parties could potentially pass a law against Netanyahu to ban anyone under criminal charges from serving as prime minister.
Between the lines: Even if the right-wing bloc turns 61, forming a government can be tricky.
- The 61-seat projection for Netanyahu’s bloc includes a conservative party led by former tech entrepreneur Naftali Bennet, who had attempted to position himself as an unbound kingmaker but more recently appears to have moved into Netanyahu’s column.
Worth nothing: Tuesday’s election had the lowest turnout since 2009, and was especially low among Israel’s Arab minority. Arab Joint List parties could see their representation shrink by 40% -50%.
- The radical right-wing “Religious Zionism” list, which includes members of a Jewish supremacy party, is expected to win 6-7 seats.
What to watch: The projections are updated throughout the night.