Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will contest his fourth election in two years on Tuesday, fighting for a parliamentary majority that could help him undermine his ongoing corruption process.
Why it matters: Three unclear elections have left Israel in a protracted political crisis as Netanyahu fights for its political and legal survival. This time, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister faces a divided opposition and has a clear chance of finally winning a 61-seat majority.
The state of affairs: The latest polls show that Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc and a broad anti-Netanyahu bloc have both won 60 seats.
What to watch: If Netanyahu manages to make it to 61, he will form the most religious and conservative coalition in the country’s history. Its rivals argue that such a government could challenge the country’s democratic nature.
- Netanyahu denies that he plans to fire the attorney general or pass laws to suspend his corruption process, but several of his potential coalition partners have expressed support for such moves.
- If Netanyahu’s bloc just falls short of a majority, Israel will likely move to a fifth round of elections.
Driving the news: Both Netanyahu and his main rival, centrist Yair Lapid, gathered their bases on the eve of the election.
- Lapid is to boost turnout in Tel Aviv, Haifa and the other major cities in central Israel.
- Netanyahu is trying to mobilize voters in his Likud party strongholds in the north and south of Israel and in Jerusalem.
- The outcome could come down to the question of which small parties from both sides reach the 3.25% electoral threshold to enter the Knesset.
- The turnout among Israel’s Arab minority, which is expected to decline this time, will also be crucial in determining the outcome.
Flashback: Netanyahu and his centrist rival, Benny Gantz, signed a power-sharing deal last April that outraged many of Gantz’s supporters by allowing Netanyahu to hold power for 18 months, while stipulating that Gantz would then rotate as prime minister.
- Before power could change hands, the government collapsed in December, along with Gantz’s political position.
Zoom in: One of the most interesting players in this pageant is Naftali Bennett, a right-wing former tech entrepreneur who until recently was seen as a kingmaker because neither block could reach 61 without him.
- His party’s poll figures began to decline when Netanyahu told his supporters that Bennett would alliance with Lapid against his fellow conservatives.
- Under pressure, Bennett went on a pro-Netanyahu channel and signed a document on live TV pledging not to join a government led by Lapid – effectively aligning himself with Netanyahu.
What’s next: Exit polls are published at 9 p.m. local time (3 p.m. ET), but the polls will be extra careful as thousands of ballots are counted too late due to COVID-19 restrictions.
It comes down to: These elections are likely to be decided by one or two seats, meaning that a few thousand votes could change the outcome and the whole country.
Go deeper: Thousands are protesting outside Netanyahu’s house.