Federal officials warned this week that the US may be on track for another rise in Covid-19 cases, leaving Europe a few weeks behind in a pattern seen during the pandemic.
European countries now implementing new lockdowns amid a resurgence of infections each showed an upward trend after disregarding known mitigation strategies, said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, noting a warning was for the US
France imposed a month-long lockdown in Paris and other parts of the country on Friday. Italy introduced new restrictions earlier this week.
The US in general has followed the European Union in the dynamics of the outbreak for a few weeks, Dr. Anthony Fauci said this week. In Europe, cases came down, went flat, and then countries pulled back to mitigation methods and had a recovery in cases, he said in a conversation with The Wall Street Journal.
“They are on a recovery right now, and that’s really something we absolutely want to avoid,” said Dr. Fauci. He added that given the current level of community contamination in the US, it is risky to withdraw all preventative modalities.
A Wall Street Journal analysis of data collected by Johns Hopkins University shows that in 25 states, the mean number of new cases in the past seven days is greater than the mean number of cases in the past 14 days, indicating that the number of cases is increasing . Those states include Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut. The number of states leaning in this direction has skyrocketed in recent weeks, growing from just five states a month ago.
The US includes many local epidemics, with varying patterns in states governed by community decisions about interventions and vaccinations, said Yonatan Grad, an assistant professor of immunology and infectious diseases at Harvard’s TH Chan School of Public Health.
“I don’t know if it makes sense to compare the entire US to what is happening elsewhere,” said Dr. Grad.
As the number of cases and hospitalizations increases in places where restrictions have been lifted and bars, restaurants and more activities have reopened, that raises concerns about an increase in transmission, said Dr. Grad. In those places, he added, the numbers are expected to continue to rise.
In Michigan, business positivity has been increasing for more than three weeks, with each region increasing either flat or with increasing positivity, according to data tracked by the University of Michigan. According to the CDC, the highly transmissible coronavirus variant first identified in the UK known as B.1.1.7 is common in the state, with 616 cases.
Initially, the decline in the number of new Covid-19 cases after the holidays was steady in Michigan, then it started to slow down and increase, said Emily Toth Martin, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Michigan School of Public Health. .
The number of cases in younger age groups, under 50, is on the rise, said Dr. Martin, and there are reports of clusters of cases taking place around school-related activities outside the classroom.
NIAID director Anthony Fauci says pulling back on public health measures is risky as cases can flatten and then recover, like in Europe.
Dr. Martin said she has worked with a team doing genomic sequencing of Covid-19 cases. In Michigan, she said, they test for variants within known clusters, rather than random samples in the community.
“If you compare us to a state that takes random samples from across the community, it looks like we have a variant problem,” said Dr. Martin, “when we’re really just looking for it in a more focused way.”
The British variety is not the predominant kind moving through the community, said Dr. Martin. Instead, the rise in the number of cases is being driven by behavioral changes, more mobility and more openness.
That will lead to fluctuations in the number of cases, especially since the number of people vaccinated within the community is not that high, she said. According to a Journal analysis of CDC data, about 22% of residents have been given at least one chance.
“We’re a little bit over our skis, in terms of a lot of enthusiasm about re-entering and starting to open things up and have meetings again, when actually none of the people involved in those activities are actually protected or immune, Said Dr. Martin.
Overall, the Covid-19 positivity rate in the US continues to decline, at a seven-day average of 4.1%. According to CDC data, Covid-19 cases per capita are highest in the 18 to 24 age group, followed by those 25 to 34.
The potential plateau comes as the US vaccination campaign, seen as the key to ending the pandemic, gains momentum. Last week, the country passed the milestone of 100 million vaccine doses delivered. And on Friday, the US hit President Biden’s goal of delivering 100 million doses of vaccine during his first 100 days in office, weeks ahead of schedule. The vaccination rate is now an average of 2.5 million doses per day; According to data from Johns Hopkins, nearly 12% of the US population has been vaccinated.
In comparison, according to Johns Hopkins, 3.68% of Italians, 3.64% of Germans, 3.37% of French and 2.65% of UK residents have been vaccinated. The EU’s vaccination effort is hampered by a lack of doses, making it likely that only a small fraction of the general public will have a chance by the end of the summer, while the spread of highly contagious variants of coronavirus accelerates in the region.
The majority of fully vaccinated Americans are 50 and older, according to CDC data.
But with the US choosing to prioritize a limited number of vaccines for older or vulnerable adults – who are at greater risk of serious complications and death from Covid-19 – it means those who may be more likely to be in the community to be vaccinated later, according to both Dr. Martin as Dr. Grad.
“It makes sense that if your goal is to reduce deaths, you should focus on vaccinating those most at risk of dying if infected,” said Dr. Grad, adding, “there are some contexts in which you would like to vaccinate those who have the highest risk of transmission to treat cases, to reduce deaths.”
Write to Melanie Grayce West at [email protected]
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