Israelis will go to the polls for the fourth time in two years next Tuesday, with Netanyahu waging an aggressive campaign against a fragmented opposition.
Why it matters: Netanyahu’s narrow path to a 61-seat majority would require him to form an ultra-right government depending on the votes of Jewish supremacists and anti-LGBT and pro-annexation members of the Knesset. With a majority, Netanyahu could pass a law or take other steps to slow down or end his corruption process.
- He denies this is his goal, but future members of his coalition have announced they would support it.
The state of affairs: Current polls show that Netanyahu’s bloc has 58 seats, but on election day things could easily turn in his direction.
- Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold means that several small parties will either win about four seats or be left out altogether.
- Voter fatigue, especially on the left, also makes turnout unpredictable.
Three scenarios
- If one or more of the three small anti-Netanyahu parties falls short, that could shift the whole balance of power and bring Netanyahu to the magical number of 61. That is a very likely scenario.
- If turnout among Netanyahu supporters falls and the radical right-wing Religious Zionist Party doesn’t cross the threshold, there could be a window to a center-right government made up of Netanyahu’s opponents. That’s an unlikely scenario.
- If the current polls are correct and neither side can form a coalition, Israel will go to a fifth election this summer. That is quite possible.
The fragmentation of the opposition has really made life More difficult for Netanyahu in a way: Unlike the past three cycles, he doesn’t have a clear rival on the left against whom his supporters can rally.
- Instead of a head-to-head race where Netanyahu can repeat the argument that “it’s us or them,” he has three opponents, all leading medium-sized parties.
The other contenders
1. Yair Lapid and the centrist Yesh Atid (There is a Future) party. Lapid, a former journalist, is the current opposition leader in the Knesset.
- What to watch: Lapid has not even stated that he wants to become prime minister, and he says he is willing to give someone else the job to get rid of Netanyahu. Netanyahu has focused his campaign on Lapid, but has largely failed to position it as a direct match.
- In numbers: Yesh Atid gets about 20 seats in the polls, a distant second after Netanyahu’s Likud, which has about 30.
2. Naphtali Bennett and the right-wing party Yamina (to the right). Bennett, a former tech entrepreneur, focused his campaign on COVID-19 and the economy.
- What to watch: While Bennett has stressed the need to replace Netanyahu, he has not ruled out joining a Netanyahu-led government. That could make him a kingmaker if the election results aren’t final.
- In numbers: Yamina is only polling around 12 seats, but it could be impossible to form a coalition that excludes Netanyahu without giving Bennett the prime minister’s job.
3. Gideon Sa’ar and the right wing New Hope party. Sa’ar, a former education and interior minister, left Likud in an effort to position himself as an old-fashioned and less populist right-wing alternative to Netanyahu.
- In numbers: Sa’ar’s party slips in the polls, from about 18 seats to nine in the latest polls.
It comes down to: Only a power-sharing deal between Lapid, Bennett and Sa’ar could spawn a new Israeli government without Netanyahu. Such cooperation between the three of them will be very difficult to obtain.