Barcelona has a new president, Joan Laporta, who also happens to be the former president, and there is a lot of speculation as to what could happen next.
The scenarios range from utter demise – more than a billion dollars in debt, the expiration of Lionel Messi’s contract, a global pandemic devastating the football economy – to “What? Worry? ”, Perfectly illustrated by candidate for President Toni Freixa, who had talked about signing Erling Haaland, from Borussia Dortmund, and Kylian Mbappé, from PSG.
As is often the case, reality is somewhere in between. There are reasons to fear the worst, reasons to be cautiously optimistic and some reasons to rejoice, even a few days after failing to make it to the Champions League quarter-finals for the first time since 2007.
Smart and responsible handling of Laporta could keep Barcelona at the top, or at least close to the top of club football for the next few seasons. But it can also keep screwing up and sink to unrecognizable depths. But this is the good news.
1. There are two extraordinary teams in Europe, and the rest … well …
Manchester City is a notch above all others, and the same can probably be said for Bayern Munich. They are solid teams from a financial standpoint, and while they will have to make some adjustments over the summer (the first needs a striker and the second a center-back) they are doing well. Everyone else has matters to settle in court, at the bank, or in the club’s accounts. Barça may be worse off in many ways than the big clubs in Europe, but they all have problems.
2. Your debt is monstrous, but debt is a problem only when you cannot pay it
The “short-term” debt of nearly $ 800 million is pretty frightening. Financial blogger Swiss Ramble explains in detail how Barcelona is so big compared to other clubs, and why it’s worrisome. However, as long as you can refinance, there is room for maneuver, and the fact is that there is a lot of private equity being returned in football right now and interest rates remain low.
They may not get much, and to some extent, they will kick the effort for later, but they will get a deal.
3. The rules of “More than one club” apply, that is a double edged sword, but in this case it is a net positive.
Barcelona’s structure – with a council elected by its members – means that giving a loan is more like lending money to a local government. On the face of it, that’s not a good thing: elected managers are not equally committed because, unlike private investors, they don’t play with their money. They are more likely to give in to outside pressure and take unreasonable risks for the sake of short-term popularity, so lenders charge them more.
That’s true to some extent, although not as much as in the past. On the other hand, Barcelona’s public status gives it a little more leverage on the backers. It’s one thing for a bank to threaten legal action against a US mutual fund club or a Russian oligarch if they are in arrears. And going against a public fund like Barcelona is quite another, with tens of millions of followers and a new direction inherited from the disaster.
In terms of public relations, if Barça owes money, the provider is more likely to want to renegotiate and have a good image in the press – “See? We’re getting Barça out of the hole and we’re not bad!” from calling the lawyers and the collectors.
4. There is a backbone of top talent, mostly young people
Let’s put Messi aside for a moment and look at the rest. Marc-Andre ter Stegen (28), Frenkie de Jong (23), Pedri (18) and Ansu Fati (18) are undoubtedly top players, they are among the best in the world in their role. Ronald Araujo (22), Sergino Dest (20) and Ilaix Moriba (18) are on track to reach that level.
If you really want to see the world through Barça’s glass, you could include Riqui Puig (21), Óscar Mingueza (21) and Francisco Trincao (21) in that list, and maybe add Carles Alena (23) and Jean to the loans. -Clair Todibo (21). I’m not going to go that far, but among the last six there will certainly be one that will reach the highest level, and a few helpful employees. Considering their age, it’s not bad at all.
5. Despite the ups and downs, some players have shown that they don’t need to be replaced right away.
Jordi Alba is 31 years old, but he has had his best campaign in several years and could offer a few more seasons (he’ll be hired through 2024 anyway). Clement Lenglet (25) is also signed until 2026, and while he doesn’t convince everyone, he’s a useful player. Even Sergio Busquets (32), who had a bad streak this year, can give you an extra year or two under certain conditions.
6. Everyone is bad financially, it’s not just your case … which means the football ecosystem has changed
Transfer and salary costs will almost certainly fall in the summer because there is less money in the system. That hurts you because it’s harder to dump assets to get cash quickly. Barça has had the highest payroll in the world for a few years now, and the others just won’t want to take over Camp Nou fiasco with outrageous salaries. But the lack of cash in the system works in two ways. It also means there is less competition for the guys you want to keep, especially those you want to renew the contract to, like Pedri or Ousmane Dembélé. And if you have to make new acquisitions, these should be much cheaper by the same principle.
7. Bad contracts don’t last forever and in some cases can be negotiated
Maybe this won’t work with players like Samuel Umtiti or Philippe Coutinho: you’ll stick to their contracts until 2023. The same will happen with Miralem Pjanic (30) until 2024. Okay. They will magically disappear off your payroll in a few years. (And that’s important when you’re making projections and setting up your three-year plan.) But you can go to someone like Gerard Piqué – who is 34 years old and on contract until 2024, and who also loves the club – and say, ” Gerard, we need your help … we are struggling Can we He is extraordinarily wealthy For starters, he is married to someone who has more money than he has and will likely have ambitions to get a role after retirement. .. why not at least give it a try?
And then there is Sergi Roberto, who will end his contract at the end of next season. This is the only club you know, they’ve been injured all season, would you say no to a few more years and a little less money?
8. Barça’s economic model means that they have absorbed more of the negative effects of COVID-19, but they should enjoy more of the positive effects when this is all over
Camp Nou is the largest stadium in European football, and its closure saw audiences go from an average of 75,000 people per game, before the pandemic, to zero since then. The Barcelona Museum is Spain’s third most visited museum – income fell to zero.
You don’t have to be a genius to see how, in absolute terms, the closures have influenced Barça to a much greater extent than other clubs. But when everything opens up again, the earnings will come back soon. And that will also have a positive impact for Barça than for others.
9. Ronald Koeman’s contract will run until 2022
He has made mistakes and it may not be the long-term solution, worse, the Dutchman and also a former Barcelona player has exceeded expectations in terms of how to divert the ship and in terms of acceptance by the players. . The fact that Barcelona is still in the race for the domestic double, despite Messi’s burofax, the resignation of José María Bartomeu, the summer pass market disaster, the financial implosion … at some point all this means you have the credit.
The good thing, though, is that if Barça has to go in the opposite direction, it won’t cost them to let go. And if he stays, he won’t be able to be as demanding as a high-profile coach would be.
10. If you are smart, you can ensure that the situation regarding Messi is ultimately beneficial for everyone
To simplify it, you should mention a few things about what Messi is bringing to the club. A real number, not Laporta’s profitable electoral voodoo when he said that Messi costs Barcelona 8% of his budget, but that it means 30% of the income. And then you talk to him as an adult. You tell him you want him to stay, but if he hopes to win anything close to the more than $ 100 million he now earns, it won’t, as it would be irresponsible on the part of the club. It would mean they won’t pay the debts and they can’t surround him with players he can keep winning with before he retires.
Don’t be ashamed to ask for a “resident discount”. You don’t seem to be a person primarily motivated by money anyway. It also doesn’t mean that you have to be like Pau Gasol and play for (practically) nothing. You just have to show him that if he accepts a substantial discount, you will pay off debt or add / retain talent with that money. Calculate a number and stand by it … and pray they agree.
And if you disagree? Well, you have a large sum of money on your payroll and you are relieving a lot of financial pressure.
What if you agree? Well, you’re going to have another season with one of the greatest footballers in history for a price that’s probably way less than it’s worth.
Those are 10 reasons to be optimistic. No doubt you can think of a lot more to panic about. And yes, a lot depends on the confidence you have in Laporta. He is not a businessman, he is essentially a lawyer and a politician and of course that is not necessarily a good sign. But if you’re humble enough to surround yourself with smart people, if you don’t make the mistakes of the past, if you can make fans believe in your project, then you can make it work.
Barça is not a recession-proof club and not too big to fail. But the truth is, it is very close.