Russia, the US’s longtime partner in space, is turning to China for its lunar ambitions.
Why it matters: The US and Russia have been uncomfortable partners in orbit for decades, but as the two grow further apart in space, their divide could reshape the geopolitical landscape above Earth – and on it – in the years to come.
- “ We will not see the same level of cooperation between the United States and Russia, compared to what we saw in the 1990s … when Russia broke up, went through an economic disaster after the collapse of the Soviet bloc and desperate, ” said space expert Bleddyn Bowen me.
Driving the news: Last week, China and Russia signed an agreement to work together to develop a lunar research station on or in orbit of the moon, uniting Russia with a nation many believe is contrary to US interests in space .
- The memorandum of understanding comes after Russia refused to sign NASA’s Artemis Accords governing international cooperation and the use of the moon, and after a Russian official criticized NASA’s plans to put a small space station into orbit. to build the moon.
- Russia was initially expected to provide an airlock for the small lunar space station, which is part of NASA’s plans to land humans on the moon, but now “NASA will pursue other options for the airlock supplier,” said NASA in a statement. .
The backstory: Relations between the US and Russia began to sour in the early 2010s when Russia annexed Crimea.
- The two countries’ space programs kept them talking through the International Space Station, but since then Russia’s public stance on space issues has changed, experts say.
- “We saw a marked change in the way the Russians interacted with each other in multilateral space forums,” Brian Weeden of the Secure World Foundation told me. There was “a marked increase in their language’s hostility to virtually everything the US was proposing.”
The intrigue: China’s space program and industry are booming, with government backing and a long-term vision of what the nation hopes to achieve. Russia’s star, on the other hand, is fading.
- Russia is losing a significant source of income as SpaceX flies astronauts to the space station, eliminating NASA’s dependence on the Russian-made Soyuz rocket.
- This partnership with China allows Russia to partner with an emerging country when it comes to space, while allowing China to take advantage of Russia’s established engineering acumen.
Just as important, if not more, the two powers will together exert geopolitical weight in shaping international space policy.
- Since Europe, Canada, Japan and others are already working with the US on their lunar plans, this partnership between Russia and China could potentially gain support from other countries, if the two countries decide they want partners too.
What to watch: It is not clear how high the priority of the Russo-Chinese lunar research station will be when China works in the coming years to build its own space station in orbit.
- The division of labor for the two nations has not been established and no clear source of funding has yet been announced.
- And experts say the door isn’t necessarily closed for the US and Russia to work together in space in the future.