NEW YORK (AP) – Deaths in the US from COVID-19 are declining again as the country continues to recover from the devastating winter wave, a trend that experts cautiously hope will accelerate as more vulnerable people are vaccinated.
While new coronavirus infections and hospital admissions have plummeted, the drop in deaths has been in progress since a January peak of about 4,500 hasn’t been that steep. But now, after weeks of hovering around 2,000 daily deaths, that figure has dropped to approximately 1,400 American lives lost every day due to the coronavirus.
“I feel encouraged by this data, but we must remain vigilant,” said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, at the White House briefing on Friday.
Public health experts say it’s too early to say definitively what the drivers have been since the rise – but they suspect that the number of post-holiday trips and meetings indoors, the widespread wearing of masks and the introduction of vaccines have all contributed.
“We are moving in the right direction,” said Harvard Medical School researcher Jagpreet Chhatwal. “I think a message of optimism is fair.”
Walensky and others fear that a pandemic, exhausting audience will drop the guard too soon. And they are monitoring the spread of worrying new versions of the virus.
“We are all desperate to be done with this,” said Jeff Shaman, who studies infectious diseases at Columbia University. “We are not yet in a place where it is still safe.”
Health workers say they’ve seen it happen before – a crushing wave of illness and death, temporary relief from a drop in COVID-19 cases, and then another deadly wave. About 531,000 Americans have died since the pandemic started a year ago.
“Every time you thought it was coming to an end, the number of cases went up,” said Dr. Mark Rosenberg, chief of emergency medicine at St. Joseph’s Health in Paterson, New Jersey.
Most forecasts for now show that the number of deaths from coronavirus will continue to decline in the coming weeks as more people receive vaccines. More than 100 million doses have been issued since December and the pace is picking up.
“We expect it to further reduce those deaths,” said Johns Hopkins infectious disease expert Justin Lessler.
From this week 62% of the over-65s have received at least one dose, according to the CDC. That is the age group that has been hit hardest and is still responsible for the vast majority of COVID-19 deaths in the US.
Getting better treatments for severe COVID-19 will also continue to help, doctors say.
“All these things come together to make a dent in the problem,” said Dr. Lewis Nelson, an emergency care specialist at Rutgers New Jersey Medical School.
The number of deaths from the coronavirus often lags behind with new infections and hospitalizations because it can take a long time for a person to become seriously ill and die after contracting the virus. It can also take weeks for deaths to be added to the national census.
“Unfortunately, there is a kind of longer tail in death and dying from COVID-19,” said Dr. Philip J. Landrigan, public health expert at Boston College.
That’s what happened in the case of Teresa Ciappa, 73, from Amherst, New York, who developed a terrible cough and fever around Thanksgiving. She was hospitalized shortly after and died of complications from COVID-19 in early January.
“Week after week, she just refused and refused,” said her daughter, Michelle Ciappa, who lives in Columbus, Ohio.
Her family was there when she was taken off a ventilator.
“We watched her take her last breath and that was it,” said Michelle Ciappa. “I wish people would be patient and take this more seriously.”
If states continue to lift restrictions, health experts warn, we could see another deadly wave of disease.
On Monday, Wyoming became the newest state in a growing list – including Texas, Mississippi, North Dakota, Iowa, Montana, and Alabama – to have withdrawn or plan to withdraw mask requirements soon. Governors across the country have also relaxed restrictions on the number of customers allowed into bars, restaurants, gyms and movie theaters.
“They don’t take a slow, measured approach. They flipped a switch, ”Lessler said. “There is a very real possibility of great resurgence.”
Experts are also concerned about the uncontrolled spread of mutated versions of the coronavirus that spread more easily and could weaken the effectiveness of certain treatments or vaccines.
“It’s still a race against time,” said Jaline Gerardin, who studies COVID-19 trends at Northwestern University. “The fear is that we won’t catch something when we should.”
Rosenberg, the emergency room doctor, said he hopes the public will be encouraged by the pandemic’s downward trend to continue wearing masks, washing their hands, and keeping a safe distance from others.
“We know what worked,” he said. “When we say we’re in the final stages of battle, don’t put your weapons away just yet.”
AP writers Thalia Beaty in New York and John Seewer in Toledo, Ohio contributed to this report.
The Associated Press Department of Health and Science is supported by the Science Education Department of the Howard Hughes Medical Institute. The AP is solely responsible for all content.