Nasdaq follows Dow for the fourth week in a row, its longest streak since 2016

Investors are finally turning out of technology stocks after a decade of outperformance.

For the fourth consecutive week, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lagged the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It’s the longest streak since April-May 2016, which was also the only year since 2011 that the Dow beat the Nasdaq.

Market experts have been predicting a tech cooldown for years and are consistently wrong, thanks to the growing dominance of mega-cap companies such as Apple and Amazon, the frenzy around Tesla and the massive shift in spending to cloud computing.

“It has been years of frustration getting that transaction right,” said Jack Ablin, who oversees $ 12.5 billion as Chief Investment Officer at Cresset.

Ablin said this time feels different. Beginning in the fourth quarter, his company introduced a new “quality dividend strategy” that saw customers move away from technology and into industrial, financial, materials and energy companies. He bet on a democratic clean-up in November, followed by a major stimulus package that would pump money into the economy, leading to inflation and higher interest rates.

The 10-year Treasury rose to its highest level in more than a year on Friday, hitting a high of 1,642%. Rising interest rates provide investors with an incentive to transfer money to fixed income, while inflation often has too much of an impact on growth companies as it temper expectations for future earnings.

Meanwhile, the $ 1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package President Joe Biden signed on Thursday will send direct payments of $ 1,400 to most Americans, as well as expand children’s tax credit and provide rental and utilities.

Add to that Biden’s statement that all adults will be eligible for a Covid-19 vaccine by May 1, and the economy looks poised for a major recovery in 2021.

“There is a great demand for going out and doing things, taking vacations, going to bars and restaurants,” Ablin said. People are “going to take all that money on the sidelines and spend it,” he said.

While Biden and the Democratic Congress are focused on expanding alternatives to green energy, the current outlook for travel and back to work is benefiting traditional oil and gas companies. Within the S&P 500, energy stocks are the best this year, up 40% as a group. The best performing groups this week were consumer durables, real estate and utilities.

The Dow Industrials were up 4.1% this week to finish at a record 32,778.64. After three consecutive weeks of declines, the Nasdaq climbed 3.1% to 13,319.87. For the year, the Dow is up 7.1% while the Nasdaq is up 3.4%.

Ablin knows it’s too early for a victory lap. Even if the technology is generally underperforming, there is still a lot of money going into even more speculative assets. Bitcoin has nearly doubled in value this year, and a non-replaceable token (NFT) from the artist Beeple was sold at auction through Christie’s on Wednesday for more than $ 69 million.

Ablin said he was just asked about NFTs by a client on Thursday. While admitting he has no strong views on it, he said that if stimulus recipients choose risky investments rather than travel and buy consumer goods, the market could look very different in the coming months.

“If it really isn’t issued but plowed into the market, that would take the carpet out of our thesis,” Ablin said. For example, he said, “If instead of taking their vacation, they are going to buy Tesla stock.”

Tesla shares are up 16% this week. But that was after a 30% drop from the previous month.

WATCH: NFTs are seeing record prices as artists and Silicon Valley buy-in