After a sharp drop in daily COVID-19 cases in New York City, daily infections now remain stubbornly high at 3,700.
The stagnation coincides with the arrival of a seductive suspect on the scene: a variant known as B1526 that first surfaced in Upper Manhattan in November.
According to the most recent data, as of Feb. 23, according to outbreak.info, the variant accounted for an estimated 34 percent of New York state coronavirus samples tested to see if they contained any of the different variants that occurred. spread in the US.
That’s a five-fold increase from a week before, when only six percent of New York samples submitted to the national GISAID database were positive for the B1256 mutations.
But that dramatic increase isn’t the whole story. The US is finally stepping up this kind of testing – which requires scientists to sequence the entire genome of a virus sample – making it more likely they will find the variant.
Virologists caution against these assumptions, especially when the New York City variety is so new and still under investigation.
But the NYC variant does contain mutations seen in others that are more likely to infect humans, and its growing prevalence could reduce COVID-19 cases in New York as past declines stall.
The ‘New York’ variant, B1526, was detected in 34% of the state samples tested for mutations, a five-fold increase from the previous week when it was detected in only 6% of the New York samples
New cases of COVID-19 remain stubbornly high in New York City, where the 7-day moving average of 3,700 cases is
It’s also coming in the midst of New York’s administrative chaos.
In addition to allegations of sexual misconduct, Governor Andrew Cuomo is also being investigated for concealing data on the true burden of COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes.
And getting a clear picture of how the pandemic is faring in New York has become increasingly difficult in the months since Cuomo briefly became a bastion of transparency thanks to his daily COVID briefings.
Now the New York State Department of Health reports there were 7,593 new positive tests on Wednesday.
The state registered 4,025 cases in New York City that day.
New York City has stopped reporting daily cases on its health department’s website, but Mayor Bill de Blasio tweeted that the city saw 3,270 new COVID-19 cases yesterday.
Meanwhile, data from Johns Hopkins University shows 6,564 new cases in New York State yesterday.
So it’s unclear how many new cases of coronavirus were in the city or state yesterday, but whatever data is used, the decline in the number of cases has declined.
The New York variety was first discovered in the Washington Heights neighborhood of Upper Manhattan in mid-November.
It is believed to have had a chance to develop in a person with advanced AIDS.
Scientists have warned that there are two main opportunities for the virus to adopt meaningful mutations that lead to new strains: high rates of infections and infections in immunocompromised patients, where the virus can linger longer, the human immune system can ‘learn’ and itself. can develop. mutations that help it survive blunt attacks from our body.
The prevalence of the variant has also risen in the US as a whole, accounting for more than 30% of the samples tested. But Outbreak.info notes that fewer samples have been submitted recently, which may bias the prevalence of the variant
The variant was identified around the time New York entered its second wave of COVID-19 infections, which also coincides with the holidays, making it unlikely that the variant was responsible for that spike in cases.
But with the number of B1526 cases doubling roughly every month, it may contribute to New York’s stable, high rate of cases, according to data from outbreak.info.
Declining cases are seen across the country. Experts think it is driven by several causes: the presence of more transmissible and contagious variants, such as the B117 form in the UK, ‘pandemic fatigue’ among Americans who grow tired of wearing masks and staying at home, and restrictions common in many states be relaxed.
The B117 variant is certainly the most common mutant in the US (wild type aside).
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed at least 2,500 cases of B117 in 46 states and predicted in January that the variant would become dominant during this month, March.
CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky issued a stark warning about variant spread: “ Please hear me clearly: at this level of cases with variants spreading, we will completely lose the hard-earned ground we have gained, ” she said during a Monday. WHite House press conference.
According to Outbreak.info, at least one case of the New York variant has been identified in St. Maarten, Japan, Singapore, Croatia, Ireland, and the UK, in addition to the 1,113 found in the US.
The variant has been detected in 22 states, including Texas, MIssissippi, New Mexico, Wyoming, New Jersey, and Michigan
‘These variants pose a very real threat to our people and to our progress. Now is not the time to relax the critical precautions that we know can stop the spread of COVID-19 in our communities, not when we are so close. ‘
Variants from South Africa and Brazil are now also in the US. There are at least 65 cases of the B1351 variant from South Africa and 10 cases of the P1 variant from Brazil in America.
Could homegrown variants threaten progress in the states where they originated?
Dr. Anthony Fauci certainly enjoys that option.
He warned that the New York variant is “now gaining ground” and said the Biden administration is “taking it very seriously,” during Wednesday’s press conference.
There is no solid evidence yet that the variant is more transmissible or deadly.
But its mutations suggest that the B1526 variant is more adept at infecting human cells.
It has mutations in the E484K and S477N sites along its genome.
Laboratory tests and observations of variants with these mutations suggest that they make the virus more difficult for antibodies to detect and better infect human cells.
Between the ‘California’ and ‘New York’ variants, the New York variant is ‘more interesting’ to Scripps Research University immunologist Dr. Kristian Andersen, he said in a Twitter thread.
Like the South African and Brazilian variants, the New York variant seems to avoid ‘some Ab’ [antibody] immunity, in a part of the country with a high degree of immunity, ”Dr. Andersen wrote, referring to the fact that a large proportion of New Yorkers have already had COVID-19 since the Big Apple became the epicenter of the pandemic.
It’s too early to say whether the variant will support New York case numbers, but Dr. Anderson wrote that it certainly warrants an investigation.
And with the variant now reported being identified in 22 states, the answer to that question may have national implications.
But it’s critical to note that even if all of scientists’ major concerns about the New York variant turn out to be true, it’s still not proven to be transferable – meaning masks and social aloofness will still works – it doesn’t appear to make people any sicker, or more likely to die, and is unlikely to completely evade immunity and vaccine-induced antibodies.
In short, the variant is worth checking out and worrying about, but don’t panic.
