When can we go on vacation again?

(CNN) – After reaching a record high in January 2021, the number of coronavirus cases worldwide is starting to decline.

While travel experts are optimistic that things will slowly reopen this year, how quickly that will happen depends on where you are, where you plan to travel, and whether the virus and its mutant strains can be brought under control. .

With so much uncertainty ahead, the most advisable course of action in most parts of the world is still to stay safe and stay at home.

However, it is not dangerous to look to the future. We asked experts to think about when the world can go on vacation again and when travel might return to normal.

When can I fly long distances?

“There are some destinations where travelers can now book a long haul flight if they want to,” said Bryce Conway, travel rewards expert and founder of 10xTravel. “For example, there are flights open to US passengers to destinations such as Albania and many parts of the Caribbean. But I don’t expect the number of long haul routes to increase to pre-Covid-19 levels until 2022.”

Alexis Barnekow, founder and CEO of the Chatflights booking app, agrees. “Almost everything can still be booked with a few exceptions,” he says. “New Zealand / Australia is more difficult to book as airlines such as Qantas have significantly reduced their inventory.

“Two other airlines that have less bookable stocks are Thai Airways and Singapore Airlines, but more for financial reasons.

“Basically all other airlines strive to keep supply at the same level as before to keep their cash flow going. You can book, but the risk of flight cancellations and rescheduling is much higher. This way airlines can continue to sell inventory. and cash run through their books, and as travel dates approach, you use rescheduling to try to fill some planes and keep others grounded. “

Travelers should check the regulations at the time of booking and again before traveling, and avoid making unnecessary journeys if this conflicts with official guidelines.

When it comes to making long-distance travel more permissible and advisable, we’re optimistic at the end of 2021.

On the other side of the world, the UK government – which has had the highest Covid death rate in Europe – has said it won’t lift its restrictions on international travel until May at the earliest.

“The lockdown is probably as severe as it has ever been, especially in Europe, the US and so on,” said Chris Goater, head of corporate communications at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the global aviation organization. “We are hopeful that there will be light at the end of the tunnel,” although “we expect the long run to be the last to recover.”

Linking far-flung markets risks exposure to potential new variants, which governments are understandably wary of, Goater says. “Many business trips are long-haul and it can take time for businesses to recover,” he adds.

What about ‘travel bells’ and short trips?

IATA’s Goater is more optimistic about the resurgence of short-haul flights. Governments will face “greater pressure to ease quarantine restrictions on travel to a neighbor than to a longer-distance destination,” he says. In Europe, “you can imagine that we could end up with some kind of EU-wide agreement that they allow borders to reopen if pandemic infections are low comes the summer.”

Ohio-based Conway says, “Short-haul flights will soon rebound, with most resuming in the fall of 2021. While there are destinations that will accept American travelers – some with a negative Covid test – I don’t expect many. travel calls to open up to US travelers until pandemic is under control. “

Barnekow, based in Stockholm, says: “’Travel bubbles don’t seem to have materialized. The UK had one with Dubai over the summer, but we’ve never heard of other examples that have worked. Rumors abound about that for Hong Kong. / Singapore and Australia / New Zealand, but these did not materialize. We get the impression that they are not doing it because it is just too complex to keep track of everything. “

Can I travel inland?

“Some parts of the world, such as China, India and Russia, recovered very strongly last year, in some cases back to pre-pandemic levels,” said IATA’s Goater. Based on this evidence, he is optimistic that as restrictions relax, domestic travel will soon recover. “If lockdown is not that strong, the demand to travel domestically will increase.”

Conway from the US says: “Domestic travel is soon starting to pick up and we will see this trend continue as vaccines become widely available to the public. We are seeing tremendous demand for travel to US destinations in California, Florida and United States. Nevada for summer travel. As of now, it appears that with the new administration there are no additional travel restrictions on domestic travel. “

James Turner, CEO of 360 Private Travel global travel service, says for his company’s Singapore offices and Hong Kong offices, domestic “staycations” will be “a big part of their business in the future.” In the UK, however, staycations were popular last summer, “this year I think most of our customers really want to leave.”

Can I take a road trip?

“Road trips have become incredibly popular in the past year because they seem to be the safest form of travel during a pandemic,” said Conway of the United States. “There is an extremely low risk of exposure to Covid-19 if you take a road trip and stay in an AirBnB with people living in the same household or a hotel that follows proper safety protocols.”

How about cruising?

“Cruising is by far the most affected travel segment, and it will be some time before cruising returns to ‘normal’ if it ever happens,” says Conway. “The cruise industry dropped the ball by coming back too soon, and as a result, they have lost a lot of public confidence. People are also likely to be more health conscious in a post-Covid-19 world, and I expect this to happen. to do irreparable damage to the cruise industry. “

Turner, of 360 Private Travel, has a more optimistic view. “I think certain types of cruises will be among the first to (recover), contrary to what some people might think.” Boutique-style experiences on small ships, with strict access conditions and carefully tailored itineraries, will appeal to customers “as the environment becomes more controlled.”

Is it safe to stay in a hotel or Airbnb?

Turner says his company’s Hong Kong office has seen a trend of customers opting for staycations with “ the more established brand names. ” Travelers feel happier in accommodations where they can be assured of the hotel’s strict policy of temperature checks, health statements, wearing a mask, logging visits via QR code, and so on. “Trust is very important.”

But, as Conway points out, Airbnbs, vacation rentals, and other options are all fine, “provided you don’t share accommodation with people who aren’t traveling with you or in your household.”

Does it matter if I have been vaccinated?

“Not yet, but it will happen,” Conway predicts. “This will be one of the biggest issues facing the travel industry in the next 12-24 months.”

“Vaccine passports”, which can impose travel restrictions on anyone who is not vaccinated, are one of the most discussed topics in the travel industry today.

Some destinations – including Seychelles, Cyprus and Poland – have already lifted quarantine requirements for visitors who can prove they have been vaccinated.

“We expect a version of vaccine proof to reenter society (think boarding a flight, going to a concert, eating at a restaurant),” said Roderick Jones, executive chairman of the San Francisco. Francisco-based risk consulting firm. Concentric advisers. “While the vaccine may never become ‘mandatory,’ it could become too detrimental not to have it.”

Will travel ever return to normal?

“Absolutely, yes,” says Conway. “I expect to see a massive spike in travel by the end of 2021 as vaccinations become widely available. Overall, I expect things to be relatively normal again by mid-2022.”

“We think business travel will be less than before, especially among white-collar workers in large companies,” Barnekow says. “Big companies have reasons other than Covid for making people travel less: environmental, cost, and morale. While nothing beats in-person ‘IRL’ meetings, the pandemic has shown that many problems can be solved with other means of communication. still that it will be almost the same as before. If I had to guess, I would say business travel will decrease by 10% in the long run. “

As for vacation travel, Barnekow thinks it will “get a short-term boost, and then we’ll see the same levels as before. We’ve never had as much traffic to the app as we do now; it seems like people are really craving it. “Book travel. Ninety percent of what we’re selling now is for departures after the summer, so people think it’s safe to fly by then.”

Turner agrees, noting the keen interest from customers. “We have evidence that there is a huge pent-up demand; people want to go.” His clients think long-term and dream big. There is a trend towards those interested in booking longer, luxury trips with carefully curated itineraries. Turner says, “2022, even 2023 – they want to book that now.”