Two childhood viruses close to zero, a “good side effect of COVID-19,” says a Utah pediatrician

Two diseases that usually hit children hard in winter – childhood flu and RSV – are practically non-existent this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, says a leading Utah pediatrician.

The bad news: Both could come back with vengeance next year.

At Intermountain Primary Children’s Hospital, doctors have not hospitalized children with RSV this season – and only one child in Utah has been hospitalized with the flu, said Dr. Andrew Pavia, Primary Children’s director of epidemiology and chief of pediatric infectious diseases. at the University. of Utah Health.

Most years, Pavia said, 80 children a week would be admitted to Primary children with RSV, and a third of those would have to go to intensive care.

As for the flu, Pavia said, the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention across the country have reported about 1,400 cases of childhood flu – while in an average year, “that number would be in 500,000,” he said.

“We’re seeing something I’ve never seen for the past 35 years,” Pavia said Monday during Intermountain Healthcare’s weekly coronavirus briefing on Facebook Live. “It’s really, really one of the good side effects, if you will, of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Some of the flu’s decline can be attributed to COVID-19’s travel restrictions, Pavia said, as flu strains are usually carried by people traveling from other countries. Pavia added that masks, hand washing, and social distancing are known to dampen the spread of the flu – and taking those public health measures for COVID-19 is “a natural experiment that we’re in control of. [the flu] really dramatic, ”said Pavia.

The drop in RSV, which stands for respiratory syncytial virus, “is a little more confusing,” Pavia said. A major symptom of RSV is a runny nose, and nasal secretions are the main way the virus spreads – so masks and hand washing likely limit how much those secretions are spread.

Children under the age of 3, who are most susceptible to RSV, don’t gather as often during the pandemic, with fewer play dates and daycare visits, Pavia said. He also noted that older siblings who learn online or have fewer in-person school days don’t bring home as many viruses.

All of that explains why RSV numbers would drop, Pavia said, but not why “it’s practically zero nationwide.”

One theory experts argue, although there isn’t much evidence to support it yet, Pavia said, “is that viruses interfere with each other. And when one virus dominates the jungle, it essentially forces all other animals out. … Viruses have weird interactions that we don’t fully understand. “

Those low flu and RSV numbers probably won’t last next year, Pavia said.

“It is very likely that if both flu and RSV are gone for a while, there will be more people who are fully susceptible to it,” Pavia said. “So when it arrives, it spreads more dramatically and we see a more serious disease.”

Flu rates tend to fluctuate, Pavia said, with a mild year often followed by a severe year. RSV, on the other hand, “depends a lot on, every year, a new batch of babies who are fully susceptible to RSV. In Utah, that’s another 50,000 good hosts to attack the virus. This year we will have babies who have never seen RSV for a whole year. So next year we’ll have twice as many naive kids prone to it. “

Doctors in Western Australia, Pavia said, noted that RSV was largely absent there in June and July – when it’s winter in the Southern Hemisphere – as the country controlled the spread of COVID-19. Recently, when COVID-19 restrictions were relaxed there, doctors saw a massive increase in RSV over the Australian summer.

“RSV is going to do something very strange when it comes back,” said Pavia. “We really cannot predict it that well. Our gut feeling is it will come back and we will have a bad RSV year when it comes back. “