Russia’s opponents in Central and Eastern Europe are concerned that President Biden is unwilling to fight hard to stop the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany – one of Vladimir Putin’s core priorities.
Why it matters: The fight is the first significant test of whether Biden’s harsh rhetoric against the Russian leader will be matched by action. Russian opponents fear that Biden does not want to oppose Angela Merkel and that the Germans will not incur heavy costs.
The big picture: The completion of Nord Stream 2 would be a huge geopolitical victory for Putin and give him substantial new influence in Europe. Russia has halted supplies of natural gas to Ukraine in retaliation for disputes.
- Bypassing Ukraine with a direct pipeline to Germany helps Russia achieve its goal of isolating its former client state, now a struggling democracy, from Western Europe.
- Russian gas is currently on its way to Europe via Ukraine.
- The pipeline is more than 90% complete and could be ready by summer without major intervention to stop it.
Driving the news: So far, worrying messages have been secretly conveyed to the Americans. But on Monday, a source close to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Axios: “The Ukrainians are a little disappointed that President Biden did not commit during the [Security] Conference to use any tool in its power to stop Nord Stream 2. ”
- “But it is not too late,” added the source close to Zelensky, “for the US to take decisive action, and the Ukrainians hope the Biden government will.”
The comments follow an unusual one joint public statement Monday from the Polish and Ukrainian governments.
- Polish and Ukrainian foreign ministers co-authored an op-ed in Politico Europe urging Biden to follow the lead of the US Congress and do everything he could to block the pipeline.
- “We call on US President Joe Biden to use all means at his disposal to prevent the project from being completed,” the ministers wrote.
- State Department spokesman Ned Price said in a statement, “The Biden government is committed to using all available tools to counter Russia’s malevolent influence and support transatlantic energy security goals.”
- Price added: “We have made it clear that companies risk sanctions if they are involved in the Nord Stream 2 project. We continue to investigate entities involved in potentially sanctionable activities.”
Behind the scenes: On Friday, the State Department filed a mandatory report to Congress specifying all ships involved in the construction of Nord Stream 2, as well as any insurance companies or other companies involved in the pipeline.
- The report did not name new companies that would be the target of US sanctions, according to the Wall Street Journal and confirmed to Axios by a source who read the report, which has not been made public.
Sen. Jim Risch from Idaho, the senior Republican of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee condemned the report as weak and incomplete.
- “Maritime tracking information makes it clear that ships not covered in today’s report are currently active in supporting the construction of Nord Stream 2,” Risch said in a statement. He demanded an “immediate statement” from the Biden government.
- Senator Jeanne Shaheen (DN.H.) also said the Biden government should do more to stop the pipeline and look forward to being informed of “additional measures”.
Between the lines: The US partners in Eastern and Central Europe want Biden to make clear that he is ready to do whatever it takes to prevent the pipeline from being completed.
- This includes sanctioning the entire construction fleet and indicating a willingness to impose sanctions on the German utilities that would receive the Russian energy.
- President Trump has even voiced trade threats at Merkel as part of his tough tactic to stop Nord Stream 2.
- Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also paved the way for a wider range of sanctions, saying last summer that he “ gave a clear warning to companies that support and support Russia’s evil influence projects that it will not be tolerated … Get out now, or risk the consequences. ”
- Construction of Nord Stream 2 ceased during Trump’s presidency.
While Team Biden has said the pipeline is a “bad deal” and that they want to stop it, the administration has done little so far to suggest it is willing to back in the fight.
- The Russians seem to have noticed. Major construction on Nord Stream 2 resumed after Biden took office.