With shortages on vaccination sites from San Francisco to San Diego, the news that Johnson and Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine could receive an emergency permit this week is a relief to health officials concerned about the spread of dangerous new variants, and the gives hope that there could be enough. doses this spring to vaccinate anyone who wants an injection.
But is that a realistic timeline?
Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and other health experts said earlier this month that vaccines would be available to everyone as early as April, although Fauci has since scaled back his projection and said it could be late. summer before most are vaccinated. President Joe Biden said last week that deals to secure 600 million doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines by the end of July will be enough for every American to be vaccinated.
But some experts warn that it can take months for enough people to get shots to have broad herd immunity. And a closer look at the numbers suggests that, without faster vaccine approvals or significant changes in the way we vaccinate, that pessimism may be warranted. Produced offerings don’t necessarily follow getting into people’s arms – there are logistical limitations – including shipping delays due to severe weather this week – and the reluctance of many to take the photos.
The good news: According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the US has ramped up vaccination rates, from less than 1 million a day a month on average to about double now. That pace is likely to accelerate as vaccines from Johnson and Johnson and other companies become available.
The bad news: Vaccination sites across the state are limiting the hours because they’re running low. Not even Kaiser Permanente, one of the state’s largest HMOs, can shoot everyone qualified to have one. And emerging virus variants are raising concerns that vaccines could become less effective before enough people have had a chance to prevent outbreaks.
So far, more than 41 million people in the US have received at least one dose of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, and more than 16 million have received both doses, the CDC said. In California, nearly 6.5 million people have received at least one dose and more than 1.5 million have received both doses, according to the CDC.
Last week, Governor Gavin Newsom pointed out that the state had massively ramped up its vaccination program to an average of 201,000 injections per day. But he complained that things could be better if only the state could get more supply. And there’s more competition for the life-saving serum, as several California counties, including San Francisco, Los Angeles, Alameda and Santa Clara, have announced eligibility criteria that go beyond health workers and frail older people, as well as those whose vital jobs put them at risk. . from exposure, such as teachers and farm workers.
Despite the shortages, there is optimism.
Dr. Ashish K. Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, said earlier this month that “sometime around April and May, we will be in a situation where any American who wants a vaccine can get one.”
Doctors Scott Gottlieb of the American Enterprise Institute and Mark McClellan of the Duke University Health Policy Center, both former commissioners of the Food and Drug Administration, wrote earlier this month that health officials should prepare for an abundance of spring vaccines – and prepare a campaign to prevent to promote vaccines’ safety.
“At some point, perhaps in April, supply will exceed demand,” they wrote in the Wall Street Journal earlier this month.
McClellan said on Friday that nothing has changed his calculus on that.
“It’s not that far away,” said McClellan. “It could be pretty soon if we take on the real challenge of making sure all those Americans who aren’t sure get the information they need to make a good decision.”
In the WSJ article, McClellan and Gottlieb note that a survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation found that just under half of US residents – 47% – say they want the COVID-19 vaccine, with the highest figures among retired adults most at risk. Two-thirds of people over 65 say they want to get vaccinated as soon as possible, while only 38% of adults under 30 say so.
Fauci said last week that he moderated his expectations after learning that Johnson and Johnson’s vaccine production would not increase as quickly as he had initially hoped, and continued his projection for when vaccines would be widely available “until the end of May and early June. “.
“We were expecting a greater number of doses from Johnson and Johnson, and it seems that while it is a good vaccine, we will not be getting a substantial amount of doses until we are in April and May,” Fauci told the Los Angeles Times.
Health experts are urging government officials to streamline approvals and get more weapons faster in a race against the evolving virus. Pfizer and Moderna reported last week in a new study in the New England Journal of Medicine calling into question the effectiveness of their vaccines against the South African variant now discovered in California.
“I am quite concerned about the ‘moving target’ that is happening right now from our political leaders about when enough supplies will be available,” said Dr. Monica Gandhi, a medical professor at UC San Francisco.
Gandhi fears that the country’s current rate of vaccination will not get an injection for anyone who wants them until September. She says government officials should speed up emergency approvals of other vaccines in the pipeline and delay second doses of dual vaccines to allow for more first-dose shots. At the very least, that would provide some protection for more people, she said.
“At the current rate, we won’t achieve herd immunity until December,” Gandhi said, adding that her recommendations could speed that up by about four months.
Dr. Peter Jay Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, agrees with speeding up vaccine approvals.
“The only big concern I have about the whole thing is whether we’ll have enough supplies in the spring,” Hotez said. He noted that the AstraZeneca vaccine has already been approved for emergency use by the World Health Organization and the European Medicines Agency.
“Getting the American people fully vaccinated by fall was a good plan,” said Hotez. “The problem now is the British version. We need to speed up that timetable. “