Every year when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reporting to the Blue Jays spring camp, one of the main themes of winter comes with him.
Heading into the 2018 and 2019 campaigns, Guerrero caused a sensation, and Toronto’s hopes for the ninth rested entirely on him. In 2020, Guerrero’s physical fitness and defensive position were the center of attention when he was transferred to first base. All of that remains a topic of discussion in 2021, but with a more optimistic tone for Guerrero, who turns 22 in March.
If you’ve been keeping an eye on Guerrero’s Instagram account this winter, you’ve seen quite a few videos of the Dominican working on his physical fitness, and to his credit he has improved quite a bit in that regard. With the attention that issue has drawn and his defense as he struggles to reclaim third base, there has been less talk of Guerrero’s offense, which was considered elite not long ago when he was the Major League’s main player.
The Blue Jays hope that Guerrero’s improved physical fitness will allow him to perform better.
“A lot has to do with the athletic ability you can reproduce,” said Ross Atkins, CEO. “The better your physical condition, the more repeatable things will be, because you can reproduce them more in your practice.”
“Play” is the keyword here. In late 2019, Guerrero looked tired and acknowledged that he was feeling that way. There were times when he made a violent swing, but in many cases he dropped his hands and shoulders, causing the ball to hit the ground. Looking at his 2019 stats, Guerrero’s average starting angle of 6.7 placed him 369th out of 398 batters with 100 or more record hits. In the shortened 2020 season, that number dropped to 4.6 degrees, placing it in 325th place out of 352 batters with 50 or more at bats.
So the idea is that this superior version of Guerrero should allow him to reproduce the best version of his swing with more consistency than in the past two seasons. In a perfect world, Guerrero’s winter tweaks would allow him to maximize his swing not just during spring practice, but over 162 games and the postseason. Exit speed will never be an issue for Guerrero, but improving his starting angle will be key to reaching his potential.
If Guerrero can be more consistent with his athletic skills, as Atkins says, he will give other Blue Jays hitters more opportunities to contribute as a designated hitter. However, Guerrero divides his playing time between first and third base and using him as BD in a third of his games – as was the case in 2020 – is not ideal for Toronto.
Currently, the Blue Jays have four “starting” outfielders: George Springer, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Teoscar Hernández and Randal Grichuk. If catcher Alejandro Kirk makes the arm team roster, he would represent another bat who could serve as BD from time to time. That’s why the Blue Jays have a better team when Guerrero plays defense every day and leaves BD’s role as an option for others.
It’s still early 2021, but when it comes to the things he has under his control, Guerrero has done everything right. There is no magic formula to convert these physical changes into a good average and a high OPS. But if you let Guerrero be who he really is hitting all season, all these conversations will return to what got us talking about the Dominican in 2015: his enormous potential.