Biden’s return to the Iran nuclear deal is getting tougher

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates – Iran and the US are in a gridlock.

President Joe Biden’s administration wants to revive the 2015 nuclear deal but is demanding changes from Tehran before lifting the harsh sanctions imposed on the country by the Trump team.

Meanwhile, Iran says it wants Washington to step up its game and take the first step, refusing to give in until those sanctions are lifted.

Iran has set a deadline for Sunday, February 21, and promises that if oil and banking sanctions are not lifted by then, it will prevent UN inspectors from accessing its nuclear facilities.

The political criticism is raising questions about Biden’s plans to salvage a deal that is basically livelihoods since former President Donald Trump pulled the US out in 2018.

The Iranian nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was led by the Obama administration and involved several other world powers. It lifted international sanctions against Iran and offered the country 83 million in economic aid in return for curbing its nuclear program, which included mandatory inspections by the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Any removal of IAEA inspectors “would make reaching an agreement much more difficult; without mechanisms to monitor Iran’s nuclear program, the mistrust of the US and remaining parties to the JCPOA would increase,” wrote Torbjorn Soltvedt, MENA chief. Analyst at Verisk Maplecroft. in a research note this week.

The ultimatum is intended to put pressure on Washington. But it can backfire, says Behnam ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Iran’s threat of the deadline is “intended to increase risks and fears in Washington about the direction of the nuclear program. Risks and fears that Tehran hopes Washington will improve with concessions and premature sanctions,” Taleblu told CNBC.

But the escalating nuclear violations – even under Biden – “could help drive Europe towards Washington, which is now pursuing a more limited Iran policy,” he warned.

And the Islamic Republic has not held back from violating the parameters of the deal following Biden’s election, in moves that former JCPOA negotiators have described as ‘provocative’ and ‘serious’. The stakes have increased since May 2019, a year after the Trump administration pulled out of the deal and began imposing “ maximum pressure ” sanctions on the country for what it called its “ destabilizing regional behavior. ”

Iranian officials have previously insisted that the breaches are reversible once Washington offers sanctions.

But that relief is unlikely once Biden’s goals with the deal have to do with a lack of support from much of Congress and his team wants to keep Iran from appearing “ soft. ”

According to Sanam Vakil, an Iran expert and deputy head of Chatham House’s MENA program, this is not as much a game of chicken as it may seem.

It’s not really a game of chickens. It’s really about the Biden administration figuring out how they want to move forward and how they want to implement the transition, and the domestic troubles in the US have really been some kind of a barrier to what a could have been faster re-entry, ”she said. .

And the deadlock, Vakil believes, is more of a debate over the order in which certain concessions will be made.

“What we’re seeing at play in the public domain is a debate about sequencing,” she said.

“The Iranians are publicly saying ‘we need you to lift all sanctions before we do anything’. ” And of course they’re going to say that because they need to know where the US stands, what the US’s red lines are – they currently have a have limited confidence in the process. “

Henry Rome, a regional analyst with the Eurasia Group, says the Biden administration is “considering making a first gesture to Iran, aimed at showing its commitment to return to the JCPOA and urge Iran to enter negotiations without to give away significant US influence ”.

Such a move would be largely symbolic, but could include lifting sanctions against individuals, removing US objection to an IMF loan, or facilitating humanitarian trade.

“If the US provides a tangible sign of progress by (Feb. 21), that date, it could be enough for the Iranian leadership to soften those conditions,” Rome said.

Ultimately, what’s more important to the deal’s survival and US-Iran relations is what happens on June 18 – Iran’s presidential election, which could allow for a much more stubborn and anti-American leader to be elected.

The run-up to that election “will provide a clearer indication of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s willingness to endorse another serious effort to reach an agreement” on the nuclear issue, Verisk’s Soltvedt said.

“An agreement between Iran and the US before then is a distant prospect, and the risk of Khamenei running away from the JCPOA this year will remain high.”