Why the rising oil and copper prices are “completely unrelated to reality,” says Commerzbank

The GameStop GME,
-7.21%
The frenzy may have cooled off a bit, but attention will turn to the fallout later on Thursday as lawmakers start grilling key players.

Some of the key actors will face the House Financial Services Committee at noon following the backlash against the Robinhood online trading platform and other brokers’ decisions to temporarily trade some so-called meme stocks, like that video game seller, last month. to limit.

The sell-off in bond markets and rising government bond yields also remain in the spotlight, confirming optimism about COVID-19’s recovery, but also raising concerns that inflation could rise. The return on the benchmark 10-year Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y,
1.304%
is up 38 basis points this year. Interest fell early Thursday before the weekly US unemployment benefit figures later in the day.

Oil prices BRN00,
+ 0.61%
stayed higher, after US prices CL.1,
+ 0.59%
settled above $ 60 on Wednesday as freezing temperatures kept Texas refineries closed and disrupted production.

In our call of the dayCommerzbank analysts said commodities were “completely disconnected from reality,” noting that oil prices, in particular, were not impressed by news that would typically lower them. The recent rise in metal prices has also started to appear “excessive,” she added.

“Nothing seems to be able to stop the rise in oil prices at this point,” said energy analyst Carsten Fritsch, noting that Brent has made a profit in 14 of the past 15 trading days and is up about $ 10 in three weeks. A number of developments are being ignored, he said, including reports that higher prices have prompted the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to gradually ramp up oil supplies from April, and the likelihood that Saudi Arabia will not extend its voluntary production cuts further. the end of March.

“This selective perception is characteristic of markets in phases of excess,” added Fritsch. “Ordinarily, oil prices should have responded to such news by falling significantly, as it will likely hit the market of up to 1.5 million extra barrels of crude per day in April,” he said.

This detachment from reality is also present when it comes to copper HG00,
+ 2.26%
that hit its all-time high since April 2012 on Thursday, as well as nickel and aluminum also hitting multi-year highs, Commerzbank analysts said – largely hoping for a significant global economic recovery. The analysts noted that after a week-long holiday, Chinese traders have returned to the markets, pushing up prices.

However, precious metals and industrial metals analyst Daniel Briesemann said there was no new data to support the “pronounced rise” in metal prices in recent weeks. “In our view, metal prices are currently highly speculation driven and the rebound is beginning to appear excessive. From a technical point of view, copper and aluminum are being repurchased as measured against the relative strength index, ”he said in a note.

Gold GC00,
+ 0.72%
which dropped below the key $ 1,800 an ounce level earlier this week amid rising bond yields and the strength of the dollar, is also unrelated to reality, but vice versa, Fritsch said.

The tweet

Is DoubleLine Capital’s billionaire “Bond King” Jeffrey Gundlach about to turn into a bitcoin BTCUSD,
-1.46%
fan?

The markets

US Equity Futures YM00,
-0.36%

ES00,
-0.43%

NQ00,
-0.81%
be lower for the open, after the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,
+ 0.29%
closed at record high on Wednesday. European stocks were lower in early trading as investors digested mixed corporate earnings. Technology stocks drove Asian markets down overnight.

The buzz

Tilray TLRY,
-9.01%
reduced losses and increased sales in the last three months of 2020 as it prepared to merge with Canadian marijuana company Aphria APHA,
-5.15%
Shares in Tilray were up more than 8% in premarket trading.

Walmart WMT,
+ 1.06%
announced a new $ 20 billion stock buyback plan as the retailer’s earnings lagged forecasts.

Google GOOG,
+ 0.30%
has struck deals in Australia to pay for journalism, while Facebook FB,
-0.15%
has vowed to limit news sharing as Australian lawmakers are considering forcing digital giants into payment deals.

Mining stocks made gains on Thursday as copper futures rebounded to hit their highest levels since April 2012. Rio Tinto RIO,
+ 1.91%
Antofagasta ANTO,
+ 1.14%
and BHP BHP,
+ 1.65%
were among the biggest risers.

Apple AAPL,
-1.76%
Shares fell to a month-long low on Wednesday, after the tech giant’s two largest shareholders said they had cut their stakes.

Airbus AIR,
-2.42%
Shares fell more than 3% as the aircraft manufacturer’s outlook for 2021 disappointed investors. The company said it does not expect to deliver more aircraft in 2021 than the 566 it delivered in 2020.

Random reads

“I was invited to a COVID-19 vaccine because the National Health Service thought I was 6 inches tall.”

Man finds sea mine washed ashore on the beach and takes it home to use as a footstool.

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