Reveal what we’ve learned from the NCAA women’s brace

In a 2020-21 women’s basketball season with so much uncertainty, the top-16 seeds of the NCAA selection committee on Monday featured no real shockers or head-scratchers.

But we’ve learned a lot about what the process of picking and placing teams for the women’s NCAA tournament could look like on Selection Monday in a month’s time.

From how the NET rankings were used to why Baylor and NC State may have been seeded lower than expected, here are the biggest takeaways from Monday’s list of the 16 best seeds.

The NET rankings were not gospel

The NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) is the new metrics system that the committee uses as the basis for its selection process. It replaces the RPI and adds elements of offensive and defensive efficiency to a results-oriented formula, providing a more complete picture of a team’s capability.

But Monday’s revelation of the top 16 illustrated that the committee will be no more obligated in its decision-making to the NET than to the RPI.

Texas A&M is the best example. Despite being 19-1 overall and 9-0 against teams that are in the NET top 50, the Aggies are 13th in the NET. But the committee placed Texas A&M fifth overall. The committee did not allow one set of criteria to dictate its evaluation of the Aggies.

It also works the other way around. Indiana ranks ninth in the NET, but only 15 on the committee’s board. The Hoosiers’ four losses turned out to be more of a factor than the NET.

Mild surprises: Baylor ranked No. 3 seed, NC ranked No. 2

NC State has been projected this calendar year as a No. 1 seed in Bracketology for women, all but one. Baylor has been a No. 2 seed throughout that period. In Monday’s reveal, NC State was No. 6 overall (No. 2 seed) and Baylor was No. 10 overall (No. 3 seed).

None of these spots are blatant, but they are surprising. Baylor is one of the best defense teams in the country, is the leader of the Big 12 Conference and has dominated since a loss to Iowa State in mid-January that happened right after a COVID-19 hiatus. In yet another example of the NET as part of a team’s story, the Lady Bears are fourth in the NET. The surprising thing is that Baylor is a team that could have been in the talk for a number 1 seed more than a number 3.

NC State’s resume may be the hardest to review. Like Baylor, the Wolfpack have lost two games. However, one of them was without their best player, Elissa Cunane. They also stole from two of the commission’s No. 1 seeds – South Carolina and Louisville. That would usually indicate that there would also be a No. 1 seed in the cards for the Wolfpack. Instead, the committee had UConn, South Carolina, Stanford, Louisville and Texas A&M in front of it.

Baylor’s strength of the scheme [rated 96th] and two losses, one outside of the NET top 25 (Iowa State), were probably the biggest factors in their placement, “said NCAA selection committee chair Nina King. NC State’s losses were also above the NET top 25. “

Losses – in both quantity and quality – were a big factor in the placement of both teams. The exception – and there always are because 14 different criteria are considered in the selection process – is Stanford. The Cardinal also has two losses, one of which fell outside of the NET top 50 (Colorado), but Stanford was still a No. 1 seed. This is an instance in which the NET has helped a team. Stanford is No. 1 in the NET, which outweighs road races over home races. The well-traveled cardinal – displaced for nine weeks due to COVID-19 protocols in Santa Clara County, has played 13 road races this season.

Five SEC teams in the top 16

The SEC led the way with five teams – South Carolina (No. 2), Texas A&M (No. 5), Georgia (No. 12), Tennessee (No. 13) and Kentucky (No. 16) – on Monday. to reveal. Although I only had three SEC teams in my last top 16, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee were # 17-19 on my list. So this is no surprise.

By all available calculations, the SEC has been the best conference in the country this season, with eight teams in the NET’s top 36. Getting five teams in this top 16 reveal is a reflection of the data and what we’ve seen. Interestingly, the Razorbacks, the SEC team with the most notable pair of non-conference calls (Baylor and UConn), were not one of the five. That could be another illustration of how good the conference has been.

The SEC also has eight teams in Monday’s pre-reveal version of Bracketology, and all eight are comfortable in the field. Florida and Ole Miss could add to that total with a big late-season push. But more SEC teams in the 64 team field would likely mean fewer in the top 16. Any run for the Gators and Rebels would only come with wins over players like Georgia, Kentucky, Arkansas and Texas A&M.

Long COVID-19 breaks seemed to hurt Michigan and South Florida

Michigan, Rutgers and South Florida were in the top 16 of the NET, but were not on the committee’s list on Monday. The Wolverines, Scarlet Knights and Bulls have also had long COVID-19-related breaks in their seasons and haven’t played as many games as most teams.

Rutgers’s three losses take the Scarlet Knights out of the top-16, but Michigan and South Florida should have been in the race. Until Sunday they were both 11-1 and were included in my last top 16. In fact, the Wolverines were a No. 3 seed.

But one of the unknowns who went to this revelation was how the committee would look at teams that haven’t played that often. We now have our answer: playing fewer games was a significant negative on the resume.

“We looked at Michigan, but in the end found that their body of work didn’t warrant a top 16,” said King. “It’s hard to estimate the full capabilities of a team if they haven’t played that much.”

That’s an important indicator of how the committee will assess teams for the rest of the field in March. Any kind of significant break at this point in the season now looks like it will hurt teams on the bubble fighting for a spot in the field or others fighting for higher seeds.

It could also be a sign that teams with a large number of postponed games to reschedule – Michigan has nine and Rutgers and South Florida each have eight – might want to try to play as many of those games as possible.