A projection of the current trajectory of Covid-19 cases and the progress of the various vaccination plans around the world indicates that the pandemic could end by April, a team of JP Morgan analysts estimated in a report.
In their analysis, the financial specialists did not consider the most contagious variant that emerged in the United Kingdom, which has already spread to dozens of countries, as a cause for concern.
“The distribution of variant B.1.1.7. It is not inconsistent with a general decline in the number of Covid cases and the end of the pandemic in the second quarter due to vaccination campaigns, natural immunity, seasonality and other factors, ” one of the analysts wrote in the report, quoted by American media. The report made no reference to the variants found in South Africa and Brazil.
“Although the dataset is still small, the statistical analysis of vaccination is consistent with a sharp decline (ie the effective end) of the pandemic in about 40 or 70 days,” he added. That reach implies that the target would be reached sometime between the end of March and the end of April.
JP Morgan analysts assessed the impact of vaccination campaigns against Covid-19 cases and the extent of spread in areas where the UK variant was circulating and not widespread in the US and UK, and found that the peak of post-holiday cases in both the United States and the United Kingdom were “almost identical”, despite the fact that the United Kingdom variant had not yet been found in the North American country.
In addition, they noted that the number of cases in Denmark increased even faster than in the United Kingdom and the United States over the same period, and that since then, infections in the Nordic country have decreased more rapidly despite the variant being expanded in the United Kingdom . . Something similar is observed in the states of Florida and California, where new cases of coronavirus have declined faster than the national average since the peak in January, despite the fact that a higher percentage of cases of the British variant are being detected in those two states.
“This is another example of an increase in cases of variant B.1.1.7. it may be consistent with a decline in general cases (eg due to seasonality, vaccination or natural immunity), ”the report indicates.
The paper also analyzed the progress of vaccination worldwide. They found that, on average, for every 10% increase in vaccines administered, new cases of Covid-19 have declined at a rate of 117 per million people. That’s comparable to an average spread of 230 Covid-19 cases per million people in samples from about 25 countries.
By simply using those two numbers and assuming that the current vaccination rate remains constant, and that social disassociation and other preventive measures remain in effect, specialists conclude that the end of the pandemic could come in 40 to 70 days.
However, the team’s analysis has some caveats: The calculation assumes there will be no setbacks in vaccine launch or delivery, and ignores regional differences in geography, demographics, and uneven distribution of vaccines.
But these factors, which could bias the results by making them too optimistic, also have their downside, as the current stage of vaccinations around the world targets people over 65, who in turn make up about half of hospital admissions and represent approximately 85% of hospital admissions. the deaths since the pandemic began. Vaccinating that group is likely to have a much greater incremental impact on the fight against Covid-19 than the next group of people who are younger and less prone to side effects related to the disease.
Source: www.infobae.com