Year after year, experts repeat the same mantra about the Australian Open: expect setbacks. “Tennis’s annual surprise party,” read a headline years ago about the first Grand Slam of the tennis year.
But over the past decade, compared to the other majors, the Happy Slam was more like a Gloomy Slam for underdogs. Despite the early timing of the event, top players have fared better at the Australian Open – which started in Melbourne on Monday – than at the other three major tennis championships.
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From 2011 to 2020, the average ranking of a quarter-finalist in the Australian Open was No. 16 (15.8), the highest ranking of all Grand Slams. If there are setbacks at tennis’s biggest tournaments, they are much more likely to happen later in the year. The average quarter-final at the French Open was 18.3, at Wimbledon 21.4 and at the US Open 20.6.
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The trend is particularly noticeable on the women’s side, where the average quarter-finalist rankings in the last three Grand Slams of the season were around 24 or higher. “After a long season, you just try to survive at the end,” said Angelique Kerber from Germany, whose first of three Grand Slam titles was won in Melbourne in 2016.
Melbourne’s quarter-finalists are usually highly regarded
Average rankings of quarter-finalists in every tennis Grand Slam since 2011
| Australian Open | French Open | Wimbledon | US open | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Ladies | Men | Ladies | Men | Ladies | Men | Ladies | Men |
| 2020 | 24.8 | 21.0 | 61.1 | 16.4 | 33.0 | 16.6 | ||
| 2019 | 16.9 | 17.3 | 22.3 | 7.6 | 33.8 | 18.6 | 15.4 | 21.4 |
| 2018 | 15.6 | 29.5 | 22.6 | 16.0 | 41.9 | 13.3 | 18.5 | 13.9 |
| 2017 | 22.6 | 15.1 | 18.0 | 6.9 | 21.0 | 11.5 | 72.5 | 23.8 |
| 2016 | 27.9 | 8.3 | 45.8 | 13.8 | 25.6 | 14.6 | 30.1 | 25.4 |
| 2015 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 24.5 | 6.3 | 18.1 | 13.5 | 19.9 | 10.0 |
| 2014 | 15.0 | 6.6 | 18.0 | 9.5 | 17.0 | 26.1 | 21.3 | 9.4 |
| 2013 | 16.9 | 9.0 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 17.5 | 28.4 | 24.8 | 9.4 |
| 2012 | 17.0 | 7.4 | 28.4 | 5.4 | 11.8 | 13.9 | 8.5 | 6.1 |
| 2011 | 12.4 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 13.4 | 28.4 | 30.0 | 23.0 | 10.5 |
The conventional thinking has been that the early timing of the Australian Open – usually in the third week of the season – gives underdogs a better chance of beating the top players than they would in the middle of the year if the best have played their way into form. But experts say more players are committed to getting the season off to a good start, which has led to more chalk-filled draws.
Gone are the days when players would land in Australia right before the tournament and just hope to play well, said Brad Gilbert, a former top five player and the former coach of Andre Agassi and Andy Roddick.
In the early 1990s, Gilbert remembers arriving in Melbourne a week before the tournament and trying to work his way into shape, but two days later he felt tired. Today, players usually arrive in Australia two weeks before the tournament to get used to the Aussie summer.
“They’re coming down early and getting ready,” Gilbert said. “The Aussie sets the tone for the year.”
Players say that instead of playing some of their worst tennis, the early timing of the tournament helps them play some of their best. They didn’t spend months changing time zones and zigzagging around the world during the 11-month season, so they’re excited to play again when they get to Australia.
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“It’s the start of the season,” said Novak Djokovic. “Everyone is fresh and ready to jump-start their year.”
That was certainly the case for the 33-year-old number 1 in the world, who is going these two weeks for his record-extending ninth Australian Open title. Djokovic fought out injured in a five-set match against American Taylor Fritz on Friday, but still came away with the victory.
The first Grand Slam of the season has delivered its share of fairytale runs. In 2002, sixteenth seed Thomas Johansson of Sweden won his only Grand Slam title in Melbourne, and unseeded finalists Marcos Baghdatis and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga advanced to the finals in 2006 and 2008 respectively.
More recently, in 2018, three players outside the top 40 – Kyle Edmund (49), Hyeon Chung (58) and Tennys Sandgren (97) – all made it to the quarter-finals.
On the women’s side, 15th-seeded Sofia Kenin from the US had never made it past the fourth round of a major championship last year, but she won the Australian Open.
But many top players are still upset early in Melbourne. Kenin himself, seeded fourth this year, fell on Thursday in the second round of the unsown Kaia Kanepi. The ladies’ side were also exciting at the beginning of this year: No. 8 Bianca Andreescu and No. 9 Petra Kvitová, while with Mr. No. 10 Gaël Monfils, No. 12 Roberto Bautista Agut and No. 13 David Goffin lost.
But overall, players in the top 10 appeared to last longer in the Australian Open than in the other Grand Slams. The top 10 players have won an average of 3.48 rounds at the Australian Open since 2011; that average is 3.39 rounds at the French Open, 3.13 at the US Open and just 3.03 at Wimbledon.
This year has of course been different for almost every player in Australia. They had to be quarantined due to local pandemic restrictions, and they are missing their usual Grand Slam preparations. On Friday, Melbourne went into lockdown after a new cluster of COVID-19 cases was developed, and fans – who were admitted to the tournament in limited numbers – are now locked out.
With all the changes, Gilbert thinks the season’s first Grand Slam could provide a shock or two and kick off the year with a real surprise party.
“This year is like no other,” he said. “I will be surprised if we don’t have a surprising semi-finalist.”