People who protest in the streets of Myanmar after a military coup do so under very different circumstances than previous demonstrations in the country, according to an analyst from the policy research firm Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Police clashed with protesters on Tuesday, injuring four people, including one critical injury, Reuters reported. It was the most violent day of protests against the military, which this month overthrew Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratically elected government.
“This is what people feared all week as these protests grew and you had tens, maybe hundreds, thousands of people on the streets of Yangon and Mandalay and Naypyitaw,” Gregory Poling, senior fellow for Southeast Asia at CSIS, told me CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Wednesday.
Protesters ride scooters in a large convoy demonstration against the military coup in Naypyidaw, Myanmar on Feb. 7, 2021.
STR | AFP | Getty Images
He explained that these protests are very different from the large-scale demonstrations that took place in 2007, known as the “Saffron Revolution”, triggered by the military government’s decision to increase fuel prices.
“This is a Myanmar that has opened up to the world for the past 10 years, has been democratizing,” said Poling. “Most citizens have mobile Internet access – or did so before the coup. Most people on the street probably do not remember the Saffron revolution directly and certainly have no memory of 1988.”
Myanmar saw nationwide protests, marches and civil unrest in 1988, in what is sometimes referred to as the 1988 Uprising.
“That could be both good and bad, because it could very well convince them that the military will not act,” Poling said of the current protesters. “Or maybe it gives them the confidence to go out and show the generals that they don’t rule Myanmar the same way they did 15 years ago.”
He explained that while it is a “remarkably dangerous moment” for Myanmar, the junta has not immediately given the worst possible response. In previous protests, protesters had been killed in a crackdown, while many were arrested.
Protesters in the capital Naypyitaw and other cities such as Mandalay have been hurt by security forces, Reuters reported, citing local media. The agency reported that most of the police fired into the air, using water cannon and tear gas to disperse protesters. CNBC could not independently verify those reports.
The United States has condemned the military takeover and threatened sanctions. Beijing has responded more leniently, with the State Department in recent press conferences characterizing China as a “friendly neighbor to Myanmar” and calling for solutions that would ensure the latter’s political and social stability.
But China, Japan, Singapore, and Thailand have more impact on Myanmar’s economy than the US.
“I think the real question is what Japan is doing because it is the only one of those big players that can inflict any kind of economic pain on the generals,” he said.
Japan’s Deputy Defense Minister warned this month that if the world closes channels for communication with Myanmar’s military generals in response to the coup, it could push the Southeast Asian nation closer to China, local reports said.