The emergence of more contagious variants of the coronavirus threatens an encouraging trend of declining COVID-19 cases across the country.
New US cases of COVID-19 on Sunday fell below 100,000 for the first time since November, a hopeful sign after a brutal post-Thanksgiving spell that spiked cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
Health officials are urging the public and governors not to relax precautions despite the somewhat improved situation, as measures such as wearing a mask and distancing themselves from others are even more important when the virus is more contagious.
In addition, although the trend is moving in a positive direction, the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths is still much higher than at the previous peaks in the spring and summer of last year.
According to the COVID Tracking Project, there were 96,000 new cases on Sunday, down from a peak of nearly 300,000 in early January. But that’s still way beyond any level that experts would consider a target. It is still higher than the peak of cases during the summer, which was about 75,000 cases per day.
About 3,000 people die from the virus every day and about 80,000 are in the hospital with COVID-19.
Still, the positive trend has prompted some governors to ease restrictions.
In Iowa, Governor Kim Reynolds (R) last week lifted the mask mandate and lifted restrictions on restaurants and bars.
While that may be the most sweeping recent move, other states have taken more gradual steps to come back. Government Andrew Cuomo
Andrew Cuomo Republican hopeful 2024 draws early battle lines for post-Trump era Cuomo signs bill to repeal ‘walk while trans’ law Republicans in New York want Justice Department to sue Cuomo over nursing homes MORE (D) announced that indoor dining in New York City with a 25 percent capacity could return before Valentine’s Day.
Asked about the decision by Iowa, director of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Rochelle WalenskyRochelle WalenskyCDC Could Set School Reopening Requirements This Week, Biden Says, Maine Governor Warns Against Super Bowl Parties Republicans Trying To Pummel Democrats About School Reopenings MORE Monday called on states not to lift the precautionary measures, partly citing the emergence of new variants of the virus.
“We still have an emerging threat of variants, and I would just discourage all that activity,” she said. “We really need to continue to take all risk mitigation measures here if we really want to get this pandemic under control.”
A study published Sunday highlighted the threat of a more contagious variant of the virus first identified in the UK, and found that in the US the variant doubles every 10 days and is likely the dominant species in many in March. states will be.
Because the variant is 35 to 45 percent more transferable, experts warn that its rise could lead to a sharp spike in cases and hospital admissions.
“We certainly expect a spike in cases” on the current trajectory, said Karthik Gangavarapu, a researcher at the Scripps Research Institute and one of the study authors. “We still don’t know how much of a peak it will be.”
Stepping up genomic sequencing to track the prevalence of different variants, as well as additional efforts to track down contacts from local public health departments to slow the spread of the British variant, could both help in the fight, Gangavarapu said.
Ashish Jha, Dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, warned by pointing to the example of Ireland, which was hit hard by the new variant. It peaked in early January with 132 new cases per 100,000 people. “The US has never seen such figures. Only the Dakotas had such a high infection rate, ”Jha wrote on Twitter.
Jha added that he is “optimistic about the late spring and summer,” as vaccines will be more widely available by then, but said the coming weeks are more worrisome.
While there aren’t enough vaccines available in the coming months to immunize everyone, and there are logistical challenges of getting shot into millions of arms, the faster the vaccination campaign can go, the more the new variant’s peak will be mitigated.
Encouragingly, the vaccines seem to work well against the British variant.
But another variant, first identified in South Africa, is more concerning based on the original data. The results so far have suggested that the efficacy of vaccines with the South African variant is somewhat diminished. This variant has also been found in the US, but is less common so far.
Tom Frieden, a former CDC director, wrote that the recent improving trends are likely due to a continued recovery from the post-holiday spike, when a wave of travel and indoor gatherings led to spikes.
“Now is not the time to let our guard down,” he wrote on Twitter. “We’re making progress with vaccines, but variants are coming.”