China’s vaccination drive for COVID-19 is lagging behind the US and Europe

China has suppressed the coronavirus by using its authoritarian system to get things done: from building hospitals in days, to blitz-testing entire cities, and basically shutting down the vast frontier.

So when it came time to roll out its own COVID-19 vaccines, the world expected a vaccination effort of similar speed and brutality, with the potential to once again cast a bad light on Western governments.

But seven weeks after the start of the Chinese campaign, the picture is surprisingly disappointing. The more than 31.2 million doses administered since its official start date of December 15 put it in second place after the US, with its nearly 35 million shots. But for a population of 1.4 billion, China has given just over two doses per 100 people, according to Bloomberg’s vaccine tracker, compared to three in the European Union, 10 in the US, and nearly 60 in Israel.

The effort also does not appear to meet an internal goal of vaccinating 50 million people against the Chinese New Year holiday beginning February 11, raising questions about whether the world’s second-largest economy can remain closed like the rest of the world. the planet – encouraged. through herd immunity – begins to open up.

“We expected them to succeed as long as the government is willing to enforce it through the top-down mobilization we know it has done in the past,” said Huang Yanzhong, director of the Center for Global Health Studies in New Jersey. Seton Hall University. “Now it looks like we have been optimistic.”

China’s lack of momentum is not driven by the hiccups in distribution or production shortages in places like Europe, with vaccines being rolled out in more than 25,000 locations, including repurposed stadiums, museums and community centers. Since mid-2020, it has also been issuing some shots under emergency authorization.

Vaccines made by local developers Sinovac Biotech Ltd. and Sinopharm’s China National Biotec Group Co. can also be easily stored at refrigerator temperatures for over a year, avoiding the logistical challenges of the high-tech mRNA vaccines used in the US. frozen and can spoil if thawed too early.

Instead, the slowness appears to be due to widespread hesitation among the Chinese population, for reasons ranging from safety concerns and the level of protection promised by the local vaccines to a lack of urgency, with COVID-19 largely limited to winter flare-ups in parts of the north. That could pose a problem for countries and companies that need China – with its more than 1 million foreign students and a world-leading consumer market – to open up, and to the country’s own growth prospects, despite its resilience so far.

At current vaccination rates, China will not achieve immunity to herds for another 5.5 years, compared to 11 months for the US and six months for the UK, according to Bloomberg’s tracker.

“If vaccination is not stepped up, it could further delay the opening of China’s borders and weigh on economic growth in the coming years as it will keep the frequency and intensity of COVID-19 outbreaks and government restrictions higher than necessary”, Louis said. Kuijs, Head of Asia Economics at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong. He expects China to speed up the rollout at some point, taking into account potential downsides.

But unlike testing, traveler quarantines, and lockdowns, Chinese officials don’t seem to be enforcing the problem for now.

Vaccination remains voluntary, even for key groups such as medical personnel. While other world leaders roll up their sleeves to get COVID-19 vaccines in front of the cameras, it’s unclear whether China’s – including President Xi Jinping – have received recordings given to dockers and state-owned employees who have been coming to the US since mid-2020. leaving abroad.

Chinese firms Bloomberg, which had to gauge the demand for vaccines among their employees, spoke with reported interest from a third to less than half of their employees.

Anne Zhu, an office clerk at a state airline in Wuxi, Jiangsu province, said she was given a chance because some flight attendants who prioritized vaccines didn’t want them, leaving administrative staff in line. Zhu said only 13% of the airline’s 1,200 employees at the Wuxi branch have been vaccinated, citing internal information. This will increase to a third if a group of staff gets photos next weekend.

At the Shanghai American School, social studies teacher Kirk Irwin said that only about 30% of school faculty, including both Chinese citizens and foreigners, received the Sinovac vaccine when it was offered.

“Some people thought, if I can get it in April or May, I’ll wait, because everyone feels pretty safe in Shanghai and no one travels abroad,” said Irwin, who is originally from Canada.

The vaccine developers in China have been criticized for their lack of transparency about the safety and effectiveness of their injections, resulting in less data being released than their Western counterparts. That has fueled skepticism in countries like Pakistan and Indonesia that have vaccine deals with China. As in other countries, medical workers in China are worried that they are guinea pigs for the first vaccines.

Sophia Qu, a doctor at a hospital in Guangdong Province, South China, did not accept the vaccine offer because she is concerned about negative side effects. Less than half of her colleagues have been vaccinated, she said.

Some in China also prefer to wait for a foreign-made vaccine, given past scandals over shoddy Chinese-made shots.

Jason, a graduate student in Beijing who only wanted to use his first name, said he would wait for the Pfizer Inc. vaccine to be approved in China, with drug manufacturer Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical Group Co. had a license to distribute it. He is concerned that the locally developed vaccines will not provide the same level of protection as the mRNA vaccines, with ongoing uncertainty about their true efficacy rates given spotty and conflicting disclosures.

Another contributor to the lower than expected uptake is China’s decision to limit shots only to those ages 18 to 59, leaving out nearly one-fifth of the population over 60, contrary to the US and local approach such as Norway, where give priority to nursing home residents.

Given the success of the control, China has very low immunity to people who contract the virus, which means that more than countries like the US, it relies on vaccination to protect its population, especially if it wants to reopen its borders and protect citizens. wants to give the opportunity to travel freely again.

At the current rate of vaccination, international travel should be restricted for years, said Nicholas Thomas, an associate professor of health security at City University of Hong Kong.

While China’s zero-tolerance strategy to eradicate the coronavirus has been validated by the results, that success threatens to be discounted if the country can’t keep up with vaccination, Huang said in Seton Hall.

“The West has very poorly contained the virus, but if they achieve herd immunity before China, it will send a strong message,” he said. “If the West starts to lift lockdowns and open up to each other, it will be a major challenge for that Chinese model.”