The week
Why the COVID-19 Variants Could Extend the Pandemic to 2024
Last week, New York provided a worrying analysis of what is happening in the Brazilian city of Manaus, which was previously thought to have built widespread protections against the virus last year, only to experience another major outbreak. There are theories as to how this happened: community immunity is overestimated, antibody protection is declining, the variant becomes more transmissible or, perhaps most worryingly, the virus adapting to evade antibodies. Regardless, an increasing number of variants, like the one in Brazil, could theoretically push back the endgame. Axios put it in slightly different terms: the current pandemic may be almost over, but the variants could spark new ones. Several vaccines have been shown to work well against the main coronavirus strain, and the more transmissible British variety also appears to be quite susceptible, but the South African variety appears to be more resistant. And, New York notes, even a slight decrease in efficacy could prevent “population-scale protection through vaccination alone.” However, the New York Times explains that reports of vaccine efficacy often don’t tell the whole story. Scientifically speaking, vaccine research considers any transmission a failure, but that may not be the most important. Novavax and Johnson & Johnson provided data showing that their vaccine candidates did not stop infections in South Africa as well as elsewhere, but they were still very successful in preventing serious illness, hospitalization and death. That suggests a possible scenario in which vaccines reduce the coronavirus to a much milder pathogen. But that may still not be enough worldwide, according to New York. Even if vaccines significantly reduce the worst COVID-19 results, it is estimated that the world’s poorer countries won’t achieve mass immunization until 2024, so while the tide may turn faster in the United States, the global pandemic could continue for years to come. , especially if variants interfere with the herd’s natural immunity. Read more in New York, Axios and The New York Times. More stories from theweek.com Rise of bar stool conservatives Biden must choose whether to replace Trump’s inspector general, especially 1 put forward by McConnell Trump’s’ biggest erosion ‘of support in 2020 was among’ white men autopsy of the internal campaign discovered