The growing number of cases of the highly contagious variant of the coronavirus first identified in Britain is worrying about a future wave in Southern California, one of the nation’s two hot spots of the troubling new species.
Scientists are increasingly voicing their deep concern that keeping coronavirus transmission low and speeding up vaccinations is essential, and say it is possible that hospital systems could be overwhelmed again if the UK variant gets out of hand. The UK variant has been identified in 32 states, with Florida at the top of the list at least 147 and California at least 113.
The UK variant – known officially as B.1.1.7 – is expected to become the dominant variant within a few weeks; LA County officials on Saturday announced the second confirmed case of the variant, which they say “spread in the county.” At least two cases have been identified in San Bernardino County.
San Diego County has the largest cluster of known cases of B.1.1.7 in California – at least 109 confirmed cases and an additional 44 cases epidemiologically linked to known variant cases, officials said last week. Health authorities in San Diego County last week announced the first death related to B.1.1.7, a 71-year-old man suspected of being infected with the new strain, who was a household contact of someone confirmed to have been infected. infected by the variant. Two people were hospitalized with the variant.
The mean age of those who are sick with B.1.1.7 is 30, but the age range of the infected is between the newborn and the age of 77, said Dr. Wilma Wooten, the San Diego County health officer.
The growth of the B.1.1.7 variant “requires that we remain vigilant, not complacent, and continue to take all necessary precautions to slow the spread,” warned Nathan Fletcher, chairman of the San Diego County Board of Supervisors.
The B.1.1.7 variant of the coronavirus led to a rapid spread of the disease in Great Britain, Portugal and Ireland, quickly becoming the dominant strain in those countries, Natasha Martin, associate professor in the UC San Diego Division of Infectious Diseases and Global Health, the Board of Trustees said last week.
“This particular variant is estimated to be 50% to 70% more transferable than previous variants, leading to spikes in cases,” said Martin. “There is recent evidence that it can also lead to higher mortality.”
The first detection of the B.1.1.7 variant in California took place on December 30 in San Diego County. It is now estimated to comprise 5% of the circulating species, Martin said.
“The question is not whether this species will become dominant, but how long it will last and what effect it will have on our epidemic trajectory, given its increased transmissibility,” said Martin.
A major problem is that the growing dominance of B.1.1.7 could dramatically exacerbate the California pandemic. Currently in California, Martin said, the effective reproduction rate – the average number of people to whom an infectious person transmits the coronavirus – is around 0.9, meaning that every infected person in California now transmits the virus to less than one person. which explains why the pandemic is now improving.
But should B.1.1.7 become the dominant strain, with a 50% to 70% increase in transmissibility, the reproduction number could exceed 1 and the number of cases could increase dramatically, Martin warned.
Scientific simulations suggest officials and the public need to be extraordinarily cautious about reopening the economy, Martin said.
Even a decent vaccination plan is no match for the British variant if people give up wearing a mask and giving up physical renunciation the same way they would in the run-up to Thanksgiving, according to a simulation by Martin.
If people reject wearing masks and physical distances, such as in the fall, San Diego County would likely see the current number of new cases of coronavirus – now about 1,500 new cases per day over a week period, the lowest in about two months – increase. up to 7,000 new cases per day, above levels “that would overwhelm our health systems,” Martin said.
That would be much worse than anything San Diego County has experienced so far during the pandemic. San Diego County peaked with approximately 3,600 new coronavirus cases per day during the seven-day period ending Jan. 12.
“This scenario … would overwhelm our health systems,” said Martin. “There are some emerging data that the B.1.1.7 [strain] is more deadly. So, in any case, we could expect even more deaths than we see now. “
Lowering the amount of circulating virus would slow the spread of the B.1.1.7 variant, Martin said.
“I cannot stress this enough – with the emergence of B.1.1.7 and other strains that may be more transmissible and potentially more deadly – now is the time to reduce transmission and expand vaccination,” Martin said. “In the coming weeks, we must urgently focus all efforts on reducing transmission, ensuring a robust vaccination response and approaching reopening with caution.”
Concerns about the species, as well as the persistently high number of daily cases, prompted San Diego County’s Wooten to uphold a local injunction last week banning restaurants from allowing outdoor restaurants to dine between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. San Francisco has also enforced in place an order requiring dining customers to vacate the outdoor dining areas by 10pm
That’s a different attitude from LA County, where al fresco dining could not only resume on Fridays, but also during those late hours.
According to San Diego County data, restaurants and other eateries were responsible for the second highest number of confirmed outbreaks in the community in the past 10 months, including about 20% of identified outbreaks.
Wooten told supervisors she found it uncomfortable leaving restaurants open again late at night to eat outside, because restaurants that so often turned into parties – a situation where people are much more likely to mingle with people from other households, exhaling their respiratory particles. in other people’s faces when talking, and dramatically increase the risk of a superspreader incident because people who drink don’t wear masks.
“I feel uncomfortable with the number of cases we still have at this point changing that particular order,” said Wooten.
Restaurants were the source of the second highest number of coronavirus outbreaks in San Diego County.
(San Diego County)
Currently available vaccines are believed to be effective against the B.1.1.7 variant.
Officials have also expressed concern about the variant identified in South Africa, known as B.1.351, and the closely related variety from Brazil, known as P.1. The South African variant has been discovered in two cases in South Carolina – in different parts of the state and not believed to be epidemiologically linked – and one in Maryland. The Brazilian variant has been identified in a single case in Minnesota.
The South African variant was also a cause for concern because vaccines are less effective against the virus, although “it was still not below the threshold where you would expect some degree of efficacy,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top expert in the field. of infectious diseases from the US government.
Nonetheless, scientists and government officials are now working on an extra booster shot in case officials find it necessary to provide protection against new tensions.
“This is a wake-up call for all of us,” Fauci told reporters at a briefing on Friday. “We will continue to see the evolution of mutants. So that means we have to be … agile to be able to adapt easily to make versions of the vaccine that specifically target the mutation that is actually occurring at any given time. “
This is all the more reason to step up vaccination efforts as soon as possible. “Viruses cannot mutate if they don’t replicate,” Fauci said.
It is no coincidence that the emergence of problematic mutations is occurring in countries where the coronavirus is rampant. ‘Let the virus run free, say [the U.S. and] Brazil put everyone in danger, ”Dr. Ashish Jha, Dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, tweeted.
The emergence of the British strain could mean that the summer – rather than being a quiet period for the coronavirus – could actually result in a higher prevalence of the coronavirus than scientists otherwise anticipated, says Dr Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration, told the CBS News program “Face the Nation” on Sunday.
“What’s likely to happen is that the prevalence will be high in certain regional hotspots. So we have outbreaks and maybe epidemics in parts of Florida, parts of Southern California, because of B.1.1.7. They will never really come out, but the rest of the country will see the prevalence decline, ”said Gottlieb.
A silver lining to the South African and Brazilian variants, however, is that – unlike the British variant – they appear to be no more transmissible than the regular variant of the virus, Gottlieb said. That means “we have time to take control of those variants and develop new boosters that can protect against them, vaccine boosters,” said Gottlieb.
Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, made a much more serious prediction than Gottlieb in an interview on the NBC News’ Meet the Press program Sunday. Osterholm suspected that the appearance of the British variant was like seeing a hurricane shape, and predicted another rise in the next six to 14 weeks.
“And when we see that happen – which my 45 years in the trenches tells me we will – we’ll see something like we haven’t seen in this country yet,” said Osterholm. “That hurricane is coming.”
Paul Sisson of the San Diego Union Tribune contributed to this report.