BANGKOK – According to the rules of the Communist Party of Vietnam, its head must resign at the age of 65 or after two terms. The country’s dogmatic leader, Nguyen Phu Trong, would not qualify for reappointment on either count.
But that didn’t stop the party from cementing its rule, as it closed its once-in-five-year convention on Monday, giving him a third term in an effort to unify and fend off more pragmatic challengers. .
Mr. Trong, 76, in frail health after 10 years at the helm of the party, was reappointed general secretary in one of the few remaining communist dictatorships in the world. Known for his conservative ideological stance, Mr. Trong has made fighting high-level corruption a priority, and he has led a time of sustained economic growth and national success in controlling the coronavirus.
Under his leadership, Vietnam is expected to pursue a foreign policy balancing Chinese and American interests, while retaining a hold at home by suppressing dissent by imposing lengthy prison terms.
“The key message is that the party will remain in power at all costs,” said Alexander Vuving, a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu. “I don’t expect a major change in the direction of Vietnam’s foreign policy or economic policy in the next five years.”
The Communist Party of Vietnam rules the nation of nearly 100 million people and has ruled for more than 45 years since reunification. The leadership of the one-party state is divided into three positions: the party leader, a president who serves as head of state, and a prime minister who heads the government. Since 2018, Mr. Trong has been both party leader and president.
The party is promoting a version of state capitalism that propelled Vietnam to economic growth of 2.91 percent last year, despite severe headwinds from the coronavirus pandemic. That was less than more than 7 percent the previous two years, but was among the highest growth rates in the world.
Vietnam is one of the most successful countries in controlling the coronavirus, with strict border controls, wearing a mask, tracing contacts and isolating infected people. Before a recent outbreak, it had passed almost two months without detecting a case of local transmission, and has reported just 1,817 cases and 35 deaths.
A new study by Australia’s independent Lowy Institute placed Vietnam second in the world after New Zealand in dealing with the pandemic in the first nine months.
As far as China is concerned, Vietnam maintains strong, but occasionally spirited relations with its gigantic communist neighbor to the north, which aims to increase its influence in the South China Sea. Analysts predict that Vietnam’s relations with China will remain robust, but that Vietnam will continue to look for improved ties with the United States to counter China’s growing influence in the region.
Mr. To grant Trong a third term of five years to handle these matters as general secretary meant he was in violation of the party’s own rules, limiting him to two terms in office, and renouncing the age limit for him a third time.
“The party wants to convey an image of unity, solidarity and strength so that it can prevent internal battles between different factions,” said Tuong Vu, an expert on modern Vietnamese history and politics at the University of Oregon.
Mr. Trong represents a conservative Marxist-Leninist faction within the party, which is coming under increasing pressure from more pragmatic communist leaders of various factions.
He had chosen a favorite subordinate as his designated successor, but the party turned down his candidate. Mr. Trong chose to remain as general secretary rather than accepting the leader of a rival faction to the highest office.
“Basically for me it means the failure of the party chief,” said Mr Vuving. “He had to pass the baton to another Conservative candidate, but his choice was unpopular with the members of the Central Committee.”
Mr. Vuving predicted that the next leader of Vietnam would be less doctrinal than Mr. Trong, as the leaders of more pragmatic factions in higher posts continue to compete to succeed him.
He is the last Conservative to become general secretary. It’ll loosen up a bit when he’s gone, ”Mr. Vuving said, calling Mr. Trong“ a transitional leader ”.
The week-long celebration convention in Hanoi, a long-awaited ritual, ended Monday, a day too early, as many members left to deal with a new outbreak of the coronavirus in the northeast of the country.
The outbreak of new cases, which may include patients with the more contagious variants found in Britain and South Africa, is the most severe yet for Vietnam. In the past four days, it has reported 266 new infections.
But Vietnam has reaped the economic benefits of its overall success against the pandemic. It is benefiting from a shift in production from China to other countries as large international companies seek to diversify their operations and avoid US tariffs. Foxconn, for example, is building a $ 270 million factory to assemble Apple phones and laptops in Vietnam.
“Even though they are a communist party and very conservative in Marxism-Leninism, they are an avid globalizer in economic policy,” said Mr Vuving.
Among other things, the government retains power by imposing draconian prison sentences on journalists and critics who speak out against them. In the months leading up to the party congress, it carried out a crackdown.
In January, three journalists – including Pham Chi Dung, founder of the Independent Journalists Association of Vietnam – were sentenced to 11 to 15 years in prison. Another prominent journalist, Pham Doan Trong, was arrested in October on charges of making and distributing propaganda. She is facing up to 20 years in prison.
Phil Robertson, the deputy Asia director of Human Rights Watch, said he foresaw that there would be no end to the suppression of freedom of expression while Mr. Trong remained in power.
The re-election of hard-liner Nguyen Phu Trong means that the ruling Communist Party is doubling down on its repression of democracy and human rights advocates in Vietnam, he said. “This congress shows how little political reform is possible in Vietnam today, which is still one of the most authoritarian governments in Southeast Asia.”
In addition to his position as party chief, Mr Trong took over the presidency in 2018 with the death of the incumbent president, Tran Dai Quang. Mr Trong is expected to give up the presidency later this year when the National Assembly ratifies the new top government leaders elected by the party.
Under that scenario, the current prime minister, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, 66, who made his bid to become party general secretary to become president, becomes a position that has higher prestige but less power than the prime minister.
Mr Phuc, considered more pragmatic than Mr Trong, has put together a largely successful report, but was partly unable to get enough support because he is from South Vietnam. Northerners have long held top leadership positions.
Mr Trong, who appears to be walking a bit and has reportedly had a stroke, nonetheless delivered a 75-minute speech on the opening day of the congress, praising the country’s economic development and the containment of the coronavirus.
There is no formal process for filling his post if he leaves office before his five-year term ends, but the Central Committee is expected to select a new general secretary from among the senior leaders.
“That could create a crisis because of all the uncertainties surrounding that situation,” said Mr Vu.