Social distancing rules in the United Kingdom may need to remain in effect throughout 2021 if vaccines for the Chinese coronavirus are not at least 85 percent effective, government scientists have warned.
A paper commissioned by SPI-M, a subgroup of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (SAGE) quango, claimed that Britain will face a third wave of the coronavirus if vaccinations do not substantially reduce the transmission rate.
The report, seen through The Telegraph, says, “Only vaccines that offer high infection-blocking efficacy with a high uptake in the general population allow for a relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions without a massive increase in deaths.”
“While the new vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 provide a potential exit strategy for this outbreak, this is highly dependent on the infection-blocking (or transmission-blocking) activity of the vaccine and population uptake, both of which must be carefully monitored while vaccine programs are being pursued. rolled out in the UK and other countries, ”it continued.
According to the best scenario put forward by the modellers at the University of Warwick, in which vaccines could stop 85 percent of the transmission of vaccinated individuals, to avoid a spike in deaths, lockdown measures should remain in effect until the late May – more than a year after the first lockdown was introduced in England.
If vaccines cause a 60 percent drop in transmission, then lockdown measures will have to be replaced by the social distance regime similar to September’s, with major gatherings still banned until the end of 2021.
The scientists told ministers that if Boris Johnson lifted the lockdown measures in mid-February, the country could see another spike in infections and a similar number of deaths to the first wave in April 2020.
Recently installed UK vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi MP said, “We are probably still four weeks away from getting some of that data back, but it should allow us to make plans … we will be able to see the impact of vaccines on transmission and also on hospitalization and severe infection. “
A leading British health expert has said that grandparents should not cuddle their grandchildren and families, even after receiving the coronavirus vaccine. https://t.co/GtTRuehnEQ
– Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) January 22, 2021
A government spokesman said: “At this early stage of the vaccination program, scientists do not have enough data to advise how the vaccine might affect further transmission.
“As large numbers of people at risk are vaccinated, we will be able to gather the evidence to assess the impact on infection rates, hospital admissions and reduced deaths. It is important to continue to follow national restrictions, NHS Test and Trace instructions, and to isolate yourself if instructed to do so, even if you have had the vaccine. “
Boris Johnson’s administration to date has given mixed reports of when the lockdown measures will finally be lifted, with some projections pointing to late spring or early summer.
Last week, Breitbart London reported that the government has “quietly” extended the lockdown powers of local councils until July.
Commenting on the extension of lockdown powers, London mayoral candidate David Kurten said, “The Johnson Regime has once again ‘quietly changed the law’ to extend lockdown powers until July 17th. The unnecessary destruction of our civil liberties and economy will never end until the people put an end to it. I support the Grand Reopening. “
Rona forever! Govt scientist suggests Brits can wear masks for years https://t.co/QlivD7Okfo
– Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) December 3, 2020
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