Alexey Navalny speaks via video link in a regional court in Moscow on January 28.
Photographer: Alexander Nemenov / AFP / Getty Images
Photographer: Alexander Nemenov / AFP / Getty Images
Jailed opposition leader Alexey Navalny is ramping up his battle with President Vladimir Putin, calling new mass protests this weekend as the Russian leader’s popularity wanes.
Putin’s confidence score fell to 53%, according to a Public Opinion Foundation poll from Jan. 22-24, on the day when tens of thousands of Russians gathered in cities across the country demanding the release of Navalny. That was the lowest reported by the Foundation, which regularly works for the Kremlin, since it began asking the question in that form in 2013, its website said.
“You can’t scare the tens of millions of people robbed by the authorities,” Navalny told a Moscow court on Thursday via a video link from the prison where he is currently in prison for 30 days. “I am happy to see that more and more people see that the law and the truth are on our side and that we are the majority.”
Authorities are already warning against participating in Sunday’s protests, and most Navalny aides not yet in jail have been arrested this week and facing a series of criminal charges. Still, they are concerned about the scale of the demonstrations and are looking for ways to alleviate population discontent that is simmering amid falling incomes and coronavirus restrictions, three people close to the government said.
Crowds gather in support of Alexey Navalny at a demonstration in Moscow on Jan. 23.
Photographer: Andrey Rudakov / Bloomberg
‘An avalanche’
“Navalny caused an avalanche,” said Evgeny Gontmakher, a prominent Russian economist. “People were already unhappy with their declining income and the pandemic.”
The Russian leader, 68, has been in power for more than two decades, the longest reign since Soviet dictator Josef Stalin. In July, Putin passed constitutional changes that would allow him to remain president until 2036. His support hit rock bottom last year amid the Covid-19 lockdown, but rebounded somewhat in November, the Levada Center said. He has survived several previous waves of protests against the Kremlin and has steadily tightened restrictions on public demonstrations.
Thinner wallets
Russians’ income has fallen again since the Covid-19 hit
Source: Russian Federal Statistical Service
Navalny, 44, was detained on January 17 when he returned from Germany, where he was recovering from a near-fatal nerve poisoning that he and the West blamed on Putin’s secret service. His imprisonment provoked Western calls for his immediate release, including an appeal this week in a phone call from US President Joe Biden.
Alexei Navalny is escorted from a police station in Khimki, outside Moscow, on January 18.
Photographer: Alexander Nemenov / AFP / Getty Images
After years of publicly largely ignoring the anti-graft activist, the Kremlin has begun to refute his allegations. Earlier this week, Putin condemned the protests as “dangerous” and dismissed claims in a video released by Navalny that he owns a gigantic $ 1.3 billion palace on the Black Sea. The clip has over 100 million views.
Putin, Poison and the Importance of Alexey Navalny: QuickTake
On Wednesday, police detained Navalny’s brother Oleg and two allies, Lyubov Sobol and Anastasia Vasilyeva, for 48 hours on suspicion of violating anti-Covid 19 restrictions. Prosecutors on Friday asked a court in Moscow to place them under house arrest.
They also filed a criminal case in absentia against one of the opposition leader’s top aides, Leonid Volkov, claiming that he encouraged minors to take part in the unapproved protests. Volkov, who is now outside Russia, denied the allegations. The opposition leader himself is charged with probation violation on the basis of a suspended sentence while recovering from the August attack in Germany. He is facing a 3 1/2 year sentence at a hearing on Feb. 2.
Blur profession?
Putin’s popularity has fallen from its peak
Source: Levada Center
The government’s harsh response reflects concerns that the demonstrations are much more widespread than in the past, said Natalia Zubarevich, head of regional studies at the Independent Institute of Social Policy in Moscow. Still, she expects them to fade like the previous one. “They’ll let off steam and get fed up,” she said.
Pavel Malyi, a prominent investment banker who was one of the protesters in Moscow a week ago, said a sense of injustice excites people. “Basic rights must be respected,” he said. “I want to be able to look my children in the eye.”
Riot police detain a supporter of Alexey Navalny during a demonstration in Moscow on January 23.
Photographer: Andrey Rudakov / Bloomberg
Navalny’s challenge has fueled tensions within the political elite. While one person close to the Kremlin said authorities should take steps to ease social tensions, another official said there is pressure for a hardline that will only exacerbate discontent and strengthen Navalny’s appeal.
Surveys commissioned by the Kremlin show growing recognition and support for Navalny, especially among young people, according to a person familiar with the figures, which are not public.
Navalny’s ally, Volkov, said Thursday’s ruling holding him in prison showed that Putin’s opponents have no choice but to continue to demonstrate. “The street must have the final say, there is no other way,” he said on Twitter.
– Assisted by Ilya Arkhipov, Irina Reznik, Anna Andrianova and Jake Rudnitsky