MOSCOW (AP) – Shaken by nationwide protests against imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny, Russian authorities are quickly blocking new ones – from piling legal pressure on its allies to launching a campaign to discredit the demonstrations .
Unprecedented massive rallies across Russia on January 23 demanding Navalny’s release from prison led to thousands of arrests and dozens of criminal investigations opened. Dozens of his associates and top allies have been imprisoned, some face criminal charges with imprisonment.
President Vladimir Putin likened the organizers of the protests to “terrorists,” and lawmakers accused Navalny of being a Western front man and betrayed his country in favor of Russia’s opponents.
The Navalny team admits the pressure is unprecedented but says it will not budge and are calling for another demonstration on Sunday.
A look at the Kremlin’s turmoil and strategy:
WHAT LEADED TO THE PROTESTS?
Navalny, Putin’s harshest critic, returned to Russia on January 17 after five months in Germany, where he was recovering from a nerve agent poisoning he blames on the Kremlin, which Russian officials deny.
Navalny, 44, was arrested upon arrival at the airport and jailed for 30 days, pending a hearing on whether he should be sent to prison for alleged violations of a previous conviction – which he said was politically motivated. A court refused to release Navalny on Thursday and dismissed his appeal against his arrest.
Navalny is known for video investigations of official corruption. After his arrest, his team released a report on his YouTube channel about a $ 1.3 billion coastal town allegedly built for Putin, featuring lavish Italian furnishings and even expensive toilet brushes. It has been viewed over 100 million times. The Kremlin and even Putin – who never mentions Navalny by name – denied that it was built for him.
Navalny’s team called for mass protests and demanded his release on January 23, and tens of thousands of people took to the streets in more than 100 Russian cities in the largest and most widespread outburst of anger against the Kremlin in years. Meetings took place despite not having permission, something that previously deterred a large turnout due to the threat of arrests.
WHAT WAS THE AUTHORITIES ‘RESPONSE?
Days before the protests, dozens of Navalny employees were detained. Warnings that his team was encouraging minors to take to the streets began to spread among parents. Navalny’s team dismissed the charges.
During the protests themselves, more than 4,000 people were detained, according to OVD-Info, a human rights organization that supervises political arrests. It said it was the most in its nine-year history of record keeping in the Putin era. In some cities the rallies were aggressively distributed, and human rights activists said there were incidents of violence. About 20 criminal investigations were opened against a wide variety of charges.
On Wednesday, Moscow police carried out a series of raids on apartments and offices of Navalny employees and opposition members, including his own apartment. The searches were carried out as part of an investigation into alleged violations of the coronavirus rules during the protests, an indictment that imposes up to two years in prison.
Five people – including Navalny’s brother Oleg and top ally Lyubov Sobol – have been detained in the case for 48 hours.
The Russian Commission of Inquiry also accused Navalny strategist Leonid Volkov of encouraging minors to take part in unauthorized protests. Volkov, who left Russia two years ago, may face a prison sentence if he returns. The case against him was opened a day after he wrote a Facebook post urging minors not to protest.
“We have never dealt with this kind of pressure before,” Ivan Zhdanov, head of Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation, told the AP.
WHAT ABOUT OTHER OPPOSITE GROUPS?
The Russian opposition has been made up of fractured groups that often disagree with each other for years, although there have been instances of unity in recent years: 2019 saw a campaign to allow opposition candidates to run for Moscow City Council a dozen different politicians together. and launch mass protests every week.
Navalny’s case received unanimous support from several opposition politicians, even those who usually disagree with him. They attended the January 23 rally, made statements demanding his release and shared the video of “Putin’s palace” on social media.
“The pressure on someone who is an opponent of the incumbent government, of course, affects everyone, and we must defend everyone and try to help in one way or another,” said Moscow politician Yulia Galyamina, who became known in the campaign of 2019 and faced jail itself for protest violations, The Associated Press told me.
Some activists have been caught in the crossfire. Moscow police detained a member of the civil society movement, raided his home and that of another member of the Navalny investigations. The house of Galyamina’s spokesman was also raided.
DOES KREMLIN SEE THE PROTESTS AS A THREAT?
Officials dismissed last week’s protests as minor. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that a “negligible number” of people came to the meetings, compared to the number of people voting for Putin.
At the same time, state-controlled TV, which usually ignores opposition protests, devoted lengthy segments to the rallies, focusing on instances of violence by protesters and emphasizing police reticence.
Navalny’s team said on the Telegram messaging app on Wednesday that the raids this week are a sign of Putin’s “mad fear” of mass rallies.
Analysts believe the government is taking the protests very seriously. Tatyana Stanovaya, founder of R. Politik, a political think tank, says the leadership understands to some extent that there have been reasons for the public’s frustration since an unpopular 2018 pension reform that raised the retirement age. But the Kremlin also believes the turmoil fueling Navalny is backed by foreign opponents.
“On the one hand, there is public frustration, on the other hand, there is … opposition that is seen in the Kremlin as a tool of foreign intelligence services. This combination can strengthen the authorities’ line, ”Stanovaya told AP. “I think we see it already.”
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
Analysts and Navalny allies alike believe the crackdown will continue and likely escalate as the deadlock between the politician and the authorities continues.
“I’ve been working with Navalny for 10 years and year after year this repression machine against us has never slowed down – it has only gotten faster,” Sobol told reporters a day before her arrest.
Other Navalny allies remain undaunted. “We hope this will further anger the people ahead of the January 31 rallies, and that more people will show up,” Zhdanov said.
It is critical for authorities to keep the situation under control ahead of the parliamentary elections in September, political analyst and former Kremlin speech writer Abbas Gallyamov said on Facebook.
The election will determine who will run the State Duma in 2024, when Putin’s current term ends, and he could seek re-election for another six years in office, thanks to last year’s constitutional reforms.
“Amid deteriorating living conditions and a growing demand for change, one is already inclined to refuse support for the authorities. To add insult to injury, protesters appear showing discontent that they are not alone, ”said Gallyamov. “Stepping up street protests could cost authorities an electoral disaster. Any means are good to avoid it. “