WASHINGTON (AP) – President Joe Biden faces the political risk associated with great ambition.
As one of his first acts, Biden offered a sweeping immigration overhaul last week, that would provide a path to US citizenship for the estimated 11 million people residing illegally in the United States. It would also codify provisions that wipe out some of President Donald Trump’s signature harsh policiesincluding trying to end existing protected legal status for many immigrants brought to the US as children and crackdown on asylum rules.
It’s exactly the kind of measure that many Latino activists have been craving, especially after the Trump-era crackdown. But it has to compete with Biden’s other major legislative goals, including a $ 1.9 trillion plan to combat the coronavirus, an infrastructure package promoting green energy initiatives, and a “public option” to expand health insurance.
In the best of circumstances it would be difficult to enact such a wide range of legislation. But in a tightly divided Congress, it could be impossible. And that’s got Latinos, the nation’s fastest-growing voting bloc, worried that Biden and congressional leaders could strike deals that weaken the final product. too much – or fail at all.
“This cannot be a situation where just a visionary bill – a bill – is sent to Congress and nothing is done with it,” said Marielena Hincapié, executive director of the National Immigration Law Center, which advocates for low-income immigrants. “There is an expectation that they will deliver and that there is now a mandate for Biden to be unashamedly pro-immigrant and have a political obligation to do so, and so are the Democrats.”
If Latinos eventually feel betrayed, the political ramifications for Democrats could be long-lasting. The 2020 election gave several warning signs that, despite democratic efforts to build a multiracial coalition, Latino support could be at risk.
Biden has been viewed with skepticism by some Latino activists for his association with former President Barack Obama, who has been dubbed the “deporter in chief”. for the record number of immigrants expelled from the country during his administration. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders beat Biden last year in the Nevada caucuses and California primaries, which served as early barometers of the Latino vote.
In his race against Trump, Biden won the support of 63% of Latino voters, compared to Trump’s 35%, according to AP VoteCast., a poll of more than 110,000 voters across the country. But Trump narrowed the margin somewhat in some swing states like Nevada and also got a bump from Latino men, 39% of whom supported him, compared to 33% of Latino women.
Biden became the first Democratic presidential candidate to wear Arizona since 1996, in part because of the strong support from the base of Mexican American groups who oppose the GOP’s strict immigration policies that go back decades. But he lost Florida to underperformance in Spain’s largest province, Miami-Dade, where the anti-socialist message of the Trump campaign resonated with Cuban and some Venezuelan Americans.
Biden also fell short in Texas, although running mate Kamala Harris spent valuable, late campaign time there. The ticket lost a number of sparsely populated but heavily Mexican-American provinces along the Mexican border, where law enforcement agencies are big employers and the GOP’s zero-tolerance policy echoed.
There were more warning signs for House Democrats, losing four seats in California and two in South Florida, while failing to pick up in Texas. The burgeoning Hispanic population, reflected in new U.S. census figures, could see Texas and Florida get congressional districts ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, which could make correcting the problem all the more urgent for Democrats.
Urgency is not lost at Biden. He spent months on private immigration advocates putting major overhauls at the top of his to-do list. As vice president, he watched as the Obama administration used larger congressional majorities to accelerate the passage of a financial crisis stimulus bill and signature health bill, as an immigration overhaul languished.
“It means so much to us that a new president proposes a bold, visionary immigration reform on Day 1. Not Day 2. Not Day 3. Not a year later,” said Democratic New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez, lead sponsor of his room. the Biden package.
Menendez was part of a two-pronged immigration plan championed by the “Gang of Eight” senators who collapsed in 2013. Obama then resorted to executive measures to grant legal status to millions of young immigrants. President George W. Bush also pushed for an immigration package – with a view to increasing Latino support for Republicans ahead of the 2008 election – but saw it fail in Congress.
Menendez acknowledged that the latest bill will need to support at least 10 Republican senators to pass the 60-vote hurdle to reach the floor, and that he is “under no illusions” how difficult that will be.
Former Rep. Carlos Curbelo, a moderate Republican from Florida, said Biden may find some GOP support, but will likely have to settle for far less than what his original proposal says.
“Many Republicans are concerned about the primary challenges,” Curbelo said, adding that Trump and his supporters advocate a crackdown on immigration means that “there is a political danger to Republicans.”
But he also said Democrats could alienate some of their own base by giving the appearance that they are prioritizing the needs of people in the country who are illegal over those of struggling American citizens and thus “appear to exceed from the perspective of varying and independent voters. “
Indeed, Democrats have not always universally supported an immigration revision, arguing that it could lead to an influx of cheap labor hurting American workers. Some of the party’s senators joined the Republicans to sink Bush’s bill.
Still, Latinos have not forgotten past failed immigrations and have often blamed Democrats more than Republicans.
Chuck Roca, head of Nuestro PAC, which has spent $ 4 million on ads boosting Biden in Arizona, said that while Hispanics have traditionally tended to support Democrats, he’s starting to see trends over the past decade where more are registering as independent or without party. . Those voters can still be won back, he said, but only if Latinos see real change in key issues like immigration “even if it’s piecemeal.”
“They have to do something if they want to reverse the loss of Latino voters,” said Rocha, who led the Latino voters for Sanders’ presidential campaign. “They must now do everything they can to get Latinos back.”
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Alan Fram, Associated Press writer, contributed to this report.