VK warns of more deadly load which makes locking the lift more difficult

Photographer: Leon Neal / Getty Images

The new strain of coronavirus in the UK may be more deadly than first thought, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said, warning again that the country will have to wait a long time before it can come out of lockdown.

At a press conference in London Friday, the prime minister said new evidence had prompted the government to reconsider its initial stance that the variant was more contagious but not more dangerous. It can be 30% more deadly than the original species – or more, according to a government analysis.

“In addition to spreading more quickly, it now also shows that there is some evidence that the new variant – the variant first identified in London and the Southeast – may be associated with higher rates of mortality,” Johnson said from 10 Downing Street, flanked by its best medical advisers.

The government said on average, of 1,000 men in their 60s, 13 to 14 would die if they were given the new variant, compared to 10 for the initial strain.

The prime minister’s warning comes as Britain grapples with the highest death toll in Europe and struggles to recover from the economic wreckage of its deepest recession in more than 300 years.

There was a a glimpse of light for the UK in government data on Friday, suggesting the second wave of the pandemic had passed its peak.

But Johnson and his scientific advisers were clear that the number of hospitalizations, deaths and infections remains far too high and will not allow the restrictions that companies have put in place to be lifted any time soon.

More vigilance

Added to that was the warning about the increased potency of the new variety known as B.1.1.7, which was first identified in the UK last year and has since spread around the world.

Read more: Why new virus types are so concerning: QuickTake

Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, said the new species is not only easier to transmit, but is also associated with higher mortality rates than the earlier varieties circulating in Britain.

“It is largely the impact of this new variant that means the NHS is under such intense pressure,” said Johnson. “It is more important than ever that we all remain vigilant and follow the rules.” There are 38,562 Covid patients in hospitals, which is 78% higher than the first peak in April, he said.

While an initial analysis by Public Health England experts found that the variant was not linked to more hospitalizations or deaths, independent reviews by outside experts produced consistent, worrying results, according to one government. report.

The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Imperial College London found that mortality was 29% to 35% higher in those infected with the variant of care, or VOC, compared to those carrying the original strain of the virus. The University of Exeter concluded that the risk was 91% higher, while a repeated analysis from Public Health England showed a 65% higher mortality.

“There is a realistic chance that infection with VOC B.1.1.7 is associated with an increased risk of death compared to infection with non-VOC viruses,” concluded the report from the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group. British Government. ‘It should be noted that the absolute risk of death per infection remains low. “

More data will be collected in the coming weeks – as deaths lag behind infections – that could make the analysis more robust, the group said.

Officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have reached out to learn more about the situation, but have not yet seen the data or spoken to British counterparts, a spokesman for the agency said in an email Friday.

In other developments Friday:

• Johnson promised to do “Whatever It Takes” to support jobs if restrictions persist in summer
• He warned he may need to impose stricter border measures to keep mutated tribes out of the UK
• Officials suggested pay people to stay at home in an effort to encourage more compliance with self-isolating orders
• Data presented lockdown works and the pandemic may not spread exponentially in the UK
• Another 1,401 deaths were reported in the past 24 hours, bringing the UK total to 95,981

The prime minister is under pressure from his own conservative party to set up his own roadmap to lift restrictions that have damaged the economy over the past year.

Putting the government’s hopes on a strategy to immunize 15 million of the most vulnerable people by February 15 – he said again on Friday that the country is on track to achieve that goal.

There is no evidence that the vaccines deployed in Britain are any less effective against the deadlier variety of the virus, Johnson said. But infections remain high: on average, one in 35 people in London has the disease, and one in 55 nationally.

“We can’t really consider unlocking until we’re sure the vaccination program is working,” Johnson said. “We need to be in a position where rates are not so high that an unlock will lead to another major revival.”

– With help from David Goodman, Michelle Fay Cortez and John Tozzi

(Updates with US CDC comment in 15th paragraph)