Cases of Covid-19 in England may no longer fall, and could even have intensified at the start of the country’s third national lockdown, a long-term investigation by Imperial College London found.
Researchers analyzed smear tests of 142,000 volunteers Jan. 6-15 and found that infections had increased by 50% compared to the beginning of December, with 1 in 63 people in the country infected.
About 1.58% of people tested positive for the virus during the first round of the study in January, the highest prevalence since May. That is more than 50% more than the previous round at the beginning of December 2020.
“The prevalence is very, very high compared to our last survey, where we saw that increase in December when that new variety came in,” Paul Elliott, director of the REACT program at Imperial College London, told BBC’s Today- program.
‘But we have found that it has flattened out, the R-value [or how many other people each person with coronavirus will infect] is about 1, so we are in a position where levels are high and not falling now within the period of this current lockdown, ”said Elliott.
The study warned that “until the prevalence in the community is significantly reduced, health services will remain under extreme pressure and the cumulative number of lives lost during this pandemic will continue to increase rapidly.”
The findings contradict the latest UK government figures, which showed a decrease in the number of new cases reported daily at the beginning of the week.
Elliott said on Thursday that he believes this discrepancy may be the result of the REACT study testing people at random, rather than those showing symptoms, and government data that does not yet reflect an increase in population mobility after Christmas. .
UK Education Secretary Gavin Williamson said on Sky News on Thursday that “the evidence we’ve seen is that [the lockdown] has had an impact in terms of easing some of that pressure on the NHS so that the NHS can cope, but of course the government is always looking at all the available evidence. “
British Health Secretary Matt Hancock tweeted Thursday: “These findings show why we should not let our vigilance go down in the coming weeks. Infections across England are at a very high level and it is of the utmost importance that everyone does their part To take them down. “
The UK recorded 38,905 new cases of coronavirus and 1,820 other coronavirus-related deaths on Wednesday, which is the highest daily increase in deaths since the start of the pandemic, according to data from Public Health England.